Iggesund shutdown cut Holmen's Board and Paper profit to SEK 128 million as paperboard prices held stable

How a paperboard mill shutdown reaches a carton buyer

Consumer paperboard is the stiff, printable board that folding carton makers cut and fold into packs for food, confectionery, pharmaceuticals, cosmetics and luxury goods. Holmen makes it from fresh wood fibre at Iggesund in Sweden and at Workington in England, according to the full report¹.

Holmen sells that board to converters and brand owners. A paperboard machine runs around the clock, so a planned maintenance shutdown removes several weeks of output and carries its own repair and restart costs. Mills plan these stops a year or more ahead and build stock beforehand, which is why a stop usually shows up in the producer’s profit before it shows up in a buyer’s supply.

Holmen reports its board and its printing paper together in one business area, Board and Paper. The report gives combined deliveries of 328,000 tonnes in the third quarter and does not split them between paperboard and paper, so SPI has not yet confirmed how many tonnes of board the Iggesund stop removed.

The report’s line on the quarter-on-quarter fall gives the size of the hit in one sentence.

The next sentence attributes the fall to SEK 150 million of costs and lost production from the Iggesund shutdown, and to lower deliveries, partly offset by seasonally low personnel costs. Adding back the SEK 150 million gives about SEK 278 million, above the second quarter’s SEK 254 million, by SPI’s calculation. That is not a figure Holmen reports.

What Holmen reported on 22 October

Group sales. Holmen’s net sales fell to SEK 4,945 million in the third quarter from SEK 5,327 million a year earlier, a 7.2% fall by SPI’s calculation, and from SEK 5,632 million in the second quarter. The release was published at 07:30 CEST, two hours before a webcast press and analyst conference².

Group profit. Operating profit was SEK 549 million against SEK 737 million, down about 25.5% by SPI’s calculation, with no items affecting comparability. Against the second quarter’s SEK 689 million it fell SEK 140 million, which the release ties mainly to the Iggesund maintenance shutdown.

Tax and earnings. Profit before tax was SEK 505 million against SEK 711 million. Profit after tax was SEK 391 million against SEK 944 million, a gap wider than the pre-tax fall because the third quarter of 2025 carried a positive tax line of SEK 233 million in the income statement. Earnings per share were SEK 2.6 against SEK 6.1.

Board and Paper. Business area net sales were SEK 3,408 million against SEK 3,596 million and SEK 3,663 million in the second quarter. EBITDA was SEK 368 million against SEK 619 million and SEK 494 million, and the EBITDA margin was 11% against 17% and 13%¹.

The shutdown. The report puts the Iggesund shutdown at SEK 150 million of costs and lost production in the third quarter. A year earlier, maintenance shutdowns at both Iggesund and Workington cut Board and Paper profit for January to September 2025 by about SEK 300 million, the report says.

Deliveries. Board and Paper delivered 328,000 tonnes against 354,000 a year earlier and 365,000 in the second quarter. That is a 7.3% fall year on year and a 10.1% fall from the second quarter, by SPI’s calculation.

Earlier quarters. The third quarter was the weakest of the last five for the business area. Board and Paper earned SEK 454 million in the fourth quarter of 2025 on net sales of SEK 3,358 million and deliveries of 330,000 tonnes, then SEK 168 million in the first quarter of 2026 on SEK 3,320 million and 334,000 tonnes, before recovering to SEK 254 million in the second quarter¹.

Return and investment. Return on capital employed for the business area was 10% for January to September, against 21% a year earlier and 22% for the full year 2025; the report gives no quarterly figure. Investments were SEK 164 million in the quarter, against SEK 145 million a year earlier, and SEK 450 million over nine months, against SEK 473 million in the same period of 2025, and capital employed was SEK 7,285 million on 30 September.

Cash and debt. Group cash flow after investments was SEK 703 million in the quarter, and net financial debt fell to SEK 5,810 million, or 11% of equity, from SEK 6,482 million on 30 June².

Board and Paper line by line

The business area table shows a bad quarter inside a weaker year. Nine-month operating profit fell to SEK 550 million from SEK 1,243 million, and the operating margin to 5% from 11%, even though the 2025 comparison already carried about SEK 300 million of shutdown costs at two mills¹.

The report names the nine-month drivers: higher energy costs from a low level, a weaker dollar, and slightly lower paper prices and deliveries. Nine-month deliveries fell to 1,026,000 tonnes from 1,061,000, which the report attributes to lower paper deliveries. On the cost side, cheaper wood helped.

The third quarter adds the Iggesund stop on top of those pressures. Operating profit of SEK 128 million was 64% below a year earlier and half the second quarter’s SEK 254 million, by SPI’s calculation, and the operating margin fell to 4% from 10%.

Sales per tonne point the other way. Net sales divided by deliveries rose to about SEK 10,390 per tonne from SEK 10,036 in the second quarter, up about 3.5%, by SPI’s calculation. With paper demand weaker than board demand, a likely reason is a higher share of board in the mix rather than a price rise, which fits the report’s statement that prices were largely unchanged.

Elsewhere in the group, Holmen’s other businesses moved in different directions. Forest earned SEK 441 million against SEK 538 million, as harvesting from own forests ran below plan because storm-felled timber was prioritised. Renewable Energy earned SEK 42 million against a loss of SEK 18 million, held back by grid maintenance that curtailed production, and Wood Products narrowed its loss to SEK 23 million from SEK 91 million¹.

SPI calculation (where group profit went): against a year earlier, Board and Paper lost SEK 228 million and Forest SEK 97 million, while Renewable Energy gained SEK 60 million, Wood Products SEK 68 million and group-wide items SEK 9 million. The net change is minus SEK 188 million, which matches group operating profit of SEK 549 million against SEK 737 million.

Who gains and who pays after the Iggesund stop

Holmen. The board maker paid for the shutdown. Board and Paper’s share of group operating profit fell to about 23% from about 48% a year earlier, by SPI’s calculation, and the business area’s nine-month return on capital employed fell to 10% from 21%¹.

Folding carton makers buying Holmen board. Converters that source board from Iggesund faced a stop that took output out of the quarter. Holmen reports no shortage and no allocation, and prices were largely unchanged, so the practical effect for buyers depends on how much stock each customer and Holmen built before the stop. SPI has not yet confirmed the shutdown’s dates or length.

Brand owners in food, confectionery, pharma and luxury goods. These buyers sit one step further away. With paperboard prices stable and demand flat against a year earlier, the report gives no sign of a pass-through of shutdown costs into board prices.

Buyers of competing cartonboard. Billerud’s report described excess supply in cartonboard, according to SPI’s Billerud story, which gives buyers alternatives when one mill stops. A Holmen stop in a market with spare capacity elsewhere is less likely to tighten prices than one in a balanced market, by SPI’s reading.

Buyers of printing paper. Paper demand was about 5% lower than a year earlier, the report says, and paper prices were slightly lower over nine months. Paper buyers hold more leverage than board buyers in Holmen’s mix.

Pulpwood sellers. Forest owners selling pulpwood to Holmen’s mills received less in 2026. The report says lower pulpwood prices partly offset Board and Paper’s cost pressures, and the CEO comment says low demand from industry meant the trend of falling wood prices persisted. Cheaper fibre is one reason a fresh-fibre board maker can hold prices while energy costs rise.

Holmen shareholders. Earnings per share fell to SEK 2.6 from SEK 6.1, partly because of a tax credit in the 2025 comparison. Cash flow after investments was SEK 703 million and net financial debt fell to 11% of equity².

Kraftliner sellers. SCA’s Containerboard EBITDA rose to SEK 446 million from SEK 194 million, as SPI’s SCA story reported. That segment uses a different profit measure and sells a different grade, so it is not a direct comparison with Holmen’s board.

The pinch point: flat demand and spare cartonboard capacity

The quarter’s numbers say Holmen’s board business is earning less without the market moving against it on price. Demand was level with a year earlier and prices largely unchanged, the report says, but energy costs rose, the dollar weakened and the business area carried a large shutdown¹.

That is a margin squeeze with no price relief in sight. A mill can recover higher energy costs through price when demand is firm, but Billerud describes excess cartonboard supply and Holmen’s CEO points to cautious consumers. Neither condition supports a board price increase in the near term.

The report gives no fourth-quarter outlook and names no further shutdown for the quarter. Without the Iggesund cost, the business area’s fourth quarter would compare with SEK 454 million a year earlier, so the year-on-year gap may narrow even if prices do not move.

Currency adds a further variable. Holmen reports in SEK, and the report cites a weaker dollar among the nine-month pressures on Board and Paper. SPI has not yet confirmed how much of Holmen’s board revenue is invoiced in dollars or euros, so the size of that effect on the quarter is not stated.

How Holmen compares with Billerud and SCA

Three Swedish forest and packaging groups reported their third quarters within two days. Holmen and Billerud published on 22 October and SCA on 23 October, all in SEK, though they report different profit measures for different board grades.

Holmen’s group net sales were SEK 4,945 million against SEK 5,327 million, and operating profit SEK 549 million against SEK 737 million². Its nine-month net sales were SEK 16,049 million against SEK 16,873 million, a 4.9% fall by SPI’s calculation, and nine-month operating profit SEK 2,066 million against SEK 2,531 million, an operating margin of 13% against 15%.

Billerud’s group net sales rose to SEK 10,166 million from SEK 9,905 million, and its adjusted EBITDA was SEK 1,032 million against SEK 1,058 million, as SPI’s Billerud story reported. That story also reported that Billerud expects pricing to have a positive impact in the fourth quarter and that its Frövi mill shutdown runs into the fourth quarter, with an expected cost of SEK 80 million in that quarter⁸.

SCA’s group EBITDA was SEK 1,631 million against SEK 1,644 million, and its Containerboard EBITDA rose to SEK 446 million from SEK 194 million, as SPI’s SCA story reported. SCA had announced a kraftliner increase of EUR 100 per tonne from 1 September 2026, which is a list price in EUR and not comparable with any SEK figure here⁹.

By SPI’s reading, the split is by grade. Kraftliner sellers raised prices in the third quarter, while both Holmen and Billerud describe carton board markets that were flat or oversupplied. Maintenance timing then decides how each quarter looks: SCA’s lighter stops lifted its Containerboard result, while Holmen’s Iggesund stop cut Board and Paper’s.

What the PPWR changes for consumer paperboard

The EU Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation (PPWR) has applied directly in every Member State since 12 August 2026, under SPI Regulation Tracker record PR-EU-001, with most design rules starting in 2030³. For carton buyers, four records matter most.

Food-contact packaging may not be placed on the EU market since 12 August 2026 if it contains PFAS at or above three limits, 25 ppb for any single PFAS, 250 ppb for the sum and 50 ppm for total PFAS, under record PR-EU-002⁵. Board treated for grease or water resistance is where that rule bites, and the record notes there is no harmonised EU test method yet.

From 1 January 2030 at the earliest, packaging must meet design-for-recycling criteria and be graded A, B or C, with grade B the minimum from 1 January 2038, under record PR-EU-010⁴. Uncoated fresh-fibre board faces fewer open questions than board laminated with plastic or metal, and SPI has not yet confirmed how the delegated acts will grade coated cartons.

The reuse targets under record PR-EU-006 set 40% for transport packaging and 10% for grouped packaging from 2030, and count sales packaging only where it has an evident transport function⁶. A recital exempts cardboard boxes from a stricter rule for certain internal flows. Most folding cartons are sales packaging and fall outside the 40% target.

From 1 January 2030, record PR-EU-008 restricts certain single-use formats, and the Commission’s guidance of 10 June 2026 says a plastic-lined paper cup counts as single-use plastic when plastic is more than 5% of the packaging mass⁷. That threshold matters for board used in cups and food service.