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From 30 October, the US drops Canadian corrugated boxes from its 50% duty and adds kraft paper and labels

The White House’s 23 October proclamation takes 22 tariff subheadings out of the 50% Section 338 duty on Canadian goods and adds 100, including kraft paper, large paper sacks and labels, from 12:01 a.m. ET on 30 October.

By the SPI teamPublished 15 min read

Wood, paper, plastics and machinery account for 21 of the 22 subheadings leaving the 50% duty on 30 October Unit: number of HTS subheadings in Annex I, Part A
Wood, paper, plastics and machinery account for 21 of the 22 subheadings leaving the 50% duty on 30 October5 bars. Largest: 44 Wood (plywood), 7.44 Wood (plywood)44 Wood (plywood): 7 number of HTS subheadings in Annex I, Part A748 Paper and paperboard48 Paper and paperboard: 6 number of HTS subheadings in Annex I, Part A684 Machinery84 Machinery: 5 number of HTS subheadings in Annex I, Part A539 Plastics39 Plastics: 3 number of HTS subheadings in Annex I, Part A312 Seaweed12 Seaweed: 1 number of HTS subheadings in Annex I, Part A1Wood, paper, plastics and machinery account for 21 of the 22 subheadings leaving the 50% duty on 30 October5 bars. Largest: 44 Wood (plywood), 7.44 Wood (plywood)44 Wood (plywood): 7 number of HTS subheadings in Annex I, Part A748 Paper and paperboard48 Paper and paperboard: 6 number of HTS subheadings in Annex I, Part A684 Machinery84 Machinery: 5 number of HTS subheadings in Annex I, Part A539 Plastics39 Plastics: 3 number of HTS subheadings in Annex I, Part A312 Seaweed12 Seaweed: 1 number of HTS subheadings in Annex I, Part A1

Source: The White House, Annex I to the proclamation of, checked 29 Oct 2026.

Count of 8- or 10-digit HTS subheadings listed in Part A, grouped by HTS chapter by SPI. Chapter 48 (paper) includes corrugated boxes, paper sacks, moulded pulp and coated paperboard. Chapter 84 includes two packaging machinery lines, two refrigeration or heat-treatment lines and one produce-sorting line.

Show the data
Wood, paper, plastics and machinery account for 21 of the 22 subheadings leaving the 50% duty on 30 October (number of HTS subheadings in Annex I, Part A)
HTS chapterSubheadings removed (number of HTS subheadings in Annex I, Part A)
44 Wood (plywood)7
48 Paper and paperboard6
84 Machinery5
39 Plastics3
12 Seaweed1

Key takeaways

  • Annex I to the White House proclamation of 23 October removes 22 Canadian subheadings from the 50% Section 338 duty, including corrugated boxes (4819.10.00), other paper sacks and bags (4819.40.00) and moulded pulp (4823.70.00).
  • The same annex adds 100 subheadings, among them unbleached kraft paper (4804.31.60), coated and self-adhesive papers, sacks with a base 40 cm wide or more (4819.30.00) and unprinted pressure-sensitive labels (4821.90.20).
  • The proclamation sets the switch for goods entered for consumption, or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption, on or after 12:01 a.m. eastern time on 30 October 2026.
  • The White House fact sheet says the duty applies whether or not a good originates under USMCA, and in addition to Section 232 tariffs; CBP has not yet published an implementing message for 30 October that SPI has seen.
  • SPI analysis: finished paper packaging gets relief while the papers used to make sacks, labels and coated packs get a new 50% cost, so US converters that buy Canadian kraft or labelstock face higher input costs from Friday.
The proclamation removes 22 subheadings from the 50% Section 338 duty and adds 100, from 30 October 2026

22

Subheadings removed (Annex I, Part A)

HTS subheadings of Canadian goods leaving the duty, including corrugated boxes, paper sacks and moulded pulp

Annex I, 23 Oct 2026

100

Subheadings added (Annex I, Part B)

HTS subheadings joining the duty, including kraft paper, large sacks and labels; 43 are carpets

Annex I, 23 Oct 2026

50

Duty rate

% ad valorem, on top of any Section 232 duty, for goods entered from 12:01 a.m. ET on 30 Oct 2026

Proclamation, 23 Oct 2026

Source: The White House, proclamation and Annex I, checked 29 Oct 2026.

The US President signed a proclamation on 23 October 2026 that, from 12:01 a.m. eastern time on Friday 30 October, removes 22 subheadings of Canadian goods from the 50% Section 338 duty and adds 100 others.

For packaging, the swap cuts both ways. Annex I to the proclamation takes Canadian corrugated boxes (HTS 4819.10.00), smaller paper sacks and bags (4819.40.00), moulded pulp articles (4823.70.00), two plastic film and bag lines and two packaging machinery lines out of the duty. It puts unbleached kraft paper (4804.31.60), several coated and self-adhesive papers, large paper sacks (4819.30.00) and unprinted pressure-sensitive labels (4821.90.20) in3.

The test is the date of entry. The proclamation applies the changes to goods entered for consumption, or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption, on or after 12:01 a.m. on 30 October, so a box shipment that clears on 29 October still pays 50% and a kraft paper roll that clears on 30 October starts to. US buyers of Canadian paper packaging, and Canadian converters who sell into the US, have two days to check which side of the line each part number sits on.

How the Section 338 duty on Canadian goods works

Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 lets the US President impose duties on goods from a country found to discriminate against US commerce. The duty in this story comes from Proclamation 11048 of 20 July 2026, on Canadian discrimination with respect to motor vehicles, which set an additional 50% ad valorem duty on a list of Canadian goods, according to the recitals of the 23 October proclamation1.

The duty is collected through Chapter 99 of the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (HTSUS). CBP’s guidance of 21 August set three headings, 9903.03.12, 9903.03.13 and 9903.03.14, each at 50%, tied to subdivisions (b)(1), (b)(2) and (b)(3) of US note 51. Two further headings, 9903.03.15 and 9903.03.16, carry a 0% rate for listed exceptions, including certain aluminium, steel, copper and wood products and civil aircraft6.

Annex II of the new proclamation changes only subdivision (b)(3) of note 51. It deletes the 22 subheadings in Part A and inserts the 100 in Part B, so by SPI’s reading of Annex II and CBP’s 21 August message, the new lines fall under heading 9903.03.144. Since 15 September, only goods under 9903.03.13 may claim the 0% rate in 9903.03.15, CBP’s 11 September message says5.

The White House fact sheet sets out how the duty stacks with other US measures.

“These Section 338 tariffs apply to all covered goods regardless of whether a good originates under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), and they apply in addition to tariffs imposed under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962.”

The White House, fact sheet on the Section 338 modifications, 23 October 2026

The fact sheet means a USMCA certificate of origin gives no relief from the 50% duty on a covered Canadian good, and the proclamation’s own text repeats the Section 232 point2.

What changed between July and 30 October

20 July: the original list. Proclamation 11048 imposed the 50% duty on a list of Canadian goods, with an effective date of 19 August 2026, the 23 October proclamation recites. PMMI, the packaging machinery trade body, said in a 21 July note that most packaging and processing machinery in headings 8422 and 8438 was not targeted, with a short list of exceptions that included filling, closing, sealing and labelling machinery16.

18 to 22 August: a three-day pause, then the start. Proclamation 11056 of 18 August suspended the start for three days. The recitals say Canada withdrew its commitment on 21 August, and the duty took effect at 12:01 a.m. eastern time on 22 August. CBP’s guidance message 69606660 went out late on 21 August6.

25 August: Canada’s countermeasures. Finance Canada announced counter tariffs on products covering $27.6 billion of imports from the US, effective 8 September, matching the US decision to impose a 50% tariff on $27.6 billion of Canadian goods; the release does not state the currency. It named pulp and paper among the sectors in focus9.

8 to 15 September: the first scope change. Proclamation 11065 of 8 September modified the list for goods entered from 12:01 a.m. on 15 September8. CBP’s message of 11 September added 122 classifications, removed ten and said that from 15 September only goods under 9903.03.13 could still claim the 0% rate in 9903.03.155.

28 to 29 September: import exclusions. CBP said certain Canadian alcoholic beverages, motor vehicles and dairy products were excluded from importation from 12:01 a.m. on 29 September under Proclamations 11061, 11062 and 110637. Packaging is not in those annexes.

23 October: the second scope change. The US President signed the proclamation now taking effect. Its fact sheet lists plywood sheets, some paper products, certain machinery and refrigeration equipment, and certain packing crates and boxes among the removals, and certain valves, carpets and waste products among the additions2. The proclamation gives one reason in its recitals.

“I determine that the public interests require modifying the scope of products subject to the additional ad valorem duties imposed in Proclamation 11048, as amended.”

The US President, proclamation of 23 October 2026

The proclamation also lets CBP issue rules and set further HTSUS changes by notice in the Federal Register, so the list can move again without a new proclamation1.

30 October: the switch. From 12:01 a.m. eastern time, the Part A goods leave the duty and the Part B goods join it. Of the 100 additions, 43 are carpets and floor coverings in Chapter 57 and 13 are cocoa powder lines in Chapter 18, by SPI’s count of Annex I3.

Carpets make up 43 of the 100 subheadings joining the duty, while paper and wood add 17 between them Unit: number of HTS subheadings in Annex I, Part B
Carpets make up 43 of the 100 subheadings joining the duty, while paper and wood add 17 between them11 bars. Largest: 57 Carpets, 43.57 Carpets57 Carpets: 43 number of HTS subheadings in Annex I, Part B4318 Cocoa18 Cocoa: 13 number of HTS subheadings in Annex I, Part B1344 Wood44 Wood: 9 number of HTS subheadings in Annex I, Part B948 Paper and paperboard48 Paper and paperboard: 8 number of HTS subheadings in Annex I, Part B834 Soaps, lubricants, waxes34 Soaps, lubricants, waxes: 5 number of HTS subheadings in Annex I, Part B538 Chemical products38 Chemical products: 5 number of HTS subheadings in Annex I, Part B539 Plastics39 Plastics: 4 number of HTS subheadings in Annex I, Part B484 Machinery84 Machinery: 4 number of HTS subheadings in Annex I, Part B490 Instruments90 Instruments: 3 number of HTS subheadings in Annex I, Part B332 Paints and varnishes32 Paints and varnishes: 2 number of HTS subheadings in Annex I, Part B2OtherOther: 4 number of HTS subheadings in Annex I, Part B4Carpets make up 43 of the 100 subheadings joining the duty, while paper and wood add 17 between them11 bars. Largest: 57 Carpets, 43.57 Carpets57 Carpets: 43 number of HTS subheadings in Annex I, Part B4318 Cocoa18 Cocoa: 13 number of HTS subheadings in Annex I, Part B1344 Wood44 Wood: 9 number of HTS subheadings in Annex I, Part B948 Paper and paperboard48 Paper and paperboard: 8 number of HTS subheadings in Annex I, Part B834 Soaps, lubricants, waxes34 Soaps, lubricants, waxes: 5 number of HTS subheadings in Annex I, Part B538 Chemical products38 Chemical products: 5 number of HTS subheadings in Annex I, Part B539 Plastics39 Plastics: 4 number of HTS subheadings in Annex I, Part B484 Machinery84 Machinery: 4 number of HTS subheadings in Annex I, Part B490 Instruments90 Instruments: 3 number of HTS subheadings in Annex I, Part B332 Paints and varnishes32 Paints and varnishes: 2 number of HTS subheadings in Annex I, Part B2OtherOther: 4 number of HTS subheadings in Annex I, Part B4

Source: The White House, Annex I to the proclamation of, checked 29 Oct 2026.

Count of HTS subheadings listed in Part B, grouped by HTS chapter by SPI. Chapters with one entry each (33 essential oils and cosmetics, 40 rubber, 89 boats, 95 sports goods) are combined as Other. Totals 100.

Show the data
Carpets make up 43 of the 100 subheadings joining the duty, while paper and wood add 17 between them (number of HTS subheadings in Annex I, Part B)
HTS chapterSubheadings added (number of HTS subheadings in Annex I, Part B)
57 Carpets43
18 Cocoa13
44 Wood9
48 Paper and paperboard8
34 Soaps, lubricants, waxes5
38 Chemical products5
39 Plastics4
84 Machinery4
90 Instruments3
32 Paints and varnishes2
Other4

The packaging lines that leave and join the duty

Annex I lists each subheading with a short description, and notes that the descriptions are for information only and that scope questions go to CBP3. The tables below set out the lines a packaging buyer or converter is most likely to trade, as listed in the annex, with descriptions summarised by SPI.

On the way out, the changes favour finished packaging. Corrugated cartons, boxes and cases, other paper sacks and bags, moulded or pressed pulp articles, and plastic boxes, cases and crates leave the duty, along with polypropylene film and polyethylene sacks and bags. Two lines of bleached, plastic-coated paperboard over 150 g/m² in rolls or large sheets also leave, as do two packaging machinery lines.

From 30 October, Canadian corrugated boxes, paper sacks, moulded pulp, PE bags and two packaging machinery lines leave the 50% duty
HTS subheadingProduct, as summarisedPackaging relevance
3920.20.00Polypropylene plates, sheets, film, foil and strip, non-cellular, not reinforcedFlexible packaging film
3923.10.90Plastic boxes, cases, crates and similar articles for conveying or packing goodsPlastic crates and boxes
3923.21.00Sacks and bags of polymers of ethylenePE bags and sacks
4811.51.20Bleached paper and paperboard, plastic-coated, over 150 g/m², 0.3 mm or thicker, in rolls or large sheetsCoated board for packaging
4811.51.40As above, under 0.3 mm thickCoated board for packaging
4819.10.00Cartons, boxes and cases of corrugated paper or paperboardCorrugated boxes
4819.40.00Other sacks and bags, including cones, of paper or paperboardSmaller paper bags
4823.70.00Moulded or pressed articles of paper pulpMoulded pulp trays and inserts
4823.90.10Other articles of paper pulpPulp articles
8422.30.91Machinery for filling, closing, sealing or labelling containers, and for aerating beveragesFilling and sealing lines
8422.40.91Other packing or wrapping machineryWrapping machinery

Source: The White House, Annex I, Part A, to the proclamation of, checked 29 Oct 2026.

Selected Part A lines relevant to packaging; the other 11 Part A lines are plywood, seaweed, refrigeration, heat-treatment and produce-sorting equipment. Descriptions summarised by SPI from the annex, which says its descriptions are for information only. Classification of a specific product is a matter for the importer and CBP.

On the way in, the changes hit papers and components. Unbleached kraft paper of 150 g/m² or less not elsewhere specified joins the duty; under the HTS structure, kraftliner and sack kraft sit in other subheadings of heading 4804. So do composite paper, self-adhesive paper in rolls or large sheets, two coated paper lines, sacks with a base at least 40 cm wide, and unprinted pressure-sensitive labels.

Outside Chapter 48, Part B adds wooden packing boxes and cases with solid sides, lids and bottoms (4415.10.30), and PET with a viscosity number of 78 ml/g or higher (3907.61.00). It also adds artificial and prepared waxes (3404.90.51) and acrylic or vinyl paints and varnishes in a non-aqueous medium (3208.20.00). Buyers of PET resin, waxes or varnishes for packaging should check whether their grades fall in those subheadings.

Part B’s four machinery lines are window or wall air conditioners, chest freezers of 800 litres or less, hand-held electromechanical tools and certain iron or steel taps and valves, none of them packaging machinery. Annex II inserts no heading 8422 subheading4. SPI has not yet confirmed whether any other heading 8422 lines, such as parts, remain on the list after 30 October.

From 30 October, Canadian kraft paper, coated and self-adhesive papers, large sacks, labels, wooden cases and higher-viscosity PET join the 50% duty
HTS subheadingProduct, as summarisedPackaging relevance
3907.61.00Polyethylene terephthalate with a viscosity number of 78 ml/g or higherPET resin
4415.10.30Packing boxes and cases of wood with solid sides, lids and bottomsWooden cases
4802.56.70Uncoated writing, printing or graphic paper, 40 to 150 g/m², in certain sheet sizesPrinting paper
4804.31.60Uncoated unbleached kraft paper, 150 g/m² or less, not elsewhere specified, in rolls or sheetsKraft paper for converting
4807.00.94Composite paper and paperboard, not surface-coated or impregnated, in rolls or sheetsLaminated paper
4811.41.10Self-adhesive paper and paperboard in wide strips, rolls or large sheetsLabelstock
4811.59.20Coated or covered printing paper in wide strips, rolls or certain sheetsCoated papers
4811.59.40Other coated or covered paper and paperboard in certain strips, rolls or sheetsCoated papers
4819.30.00Sacks and bags with a base 40 cm wide or more, of paper or paperboardLarge multiwall sacks
4821.90.20Pressure-sensitive paper and paperboard labels, not printedBlank labels

Source: The White House, Annex I, Part B, to the proclamation of, checked 29 Oct 2026.

Selected Part B lines relevant to packaging; Part B lists 100 lines in all. Descriptions summarised by SPI from the annex, which says its descriptions are for information only. Classification of a specific product is a matter for the importer and CBP.

SPI calculation: of the 22 lines leaving the duty, 11 are packaging lines as grouped in the table above; of the 100 joining it, the 10 in the second table are packaging lines, plus the wax and varnish lines noted above. That is a count of subheadings, not of trade value, which no official source in this story gives by line.

Industry reaction

No packaging or paper trade body had published a statement on the 23 October changes on its own site by 28 October, as far as SPI can find. The statements below were made when the duty was announced and started, and set out the positions each group brings to the new list.

“Based on information currently available, certain tissue and packaging products exported to the United States could be subject to the announced 50% tariffs.”

Cascades’ President and CEO, second-quarter 2026 results release, 6 August 2026

Cascades, the Quebec-based packaging and tissue maker, reported Packaging Products sales of C$772 million and EBITDA (A) of C$120 million for the second quarter in its results release, and said it believed the potential impact was manageable15.

“The U.S. pulp, paper, packaging and tissue supply chain is deeply integrated across North America.”

American Forest & Paper Association’s President and CEO, statement on US and Canada trade discussions, 25 August 2026

AF&PA’s statement warned that new Canadian counter tariffs on US pulp and paper could raise costs on both sides, and urged both governments to resume negotiations13.

“A fair, predictable and durable trading relationship remains in the interests of both countries.”

Forest Products Association of Canada’s President and CEO, statement on new US tariffs, 24 August 2026

FPAC’s statement said including value-added products such as plywood, fibreboard, paper and packaging was particularly damaging, and put the sector at nearly 200,000 direct jobs11.

AF&PA’s earlier statement of 22 July said broad tariffs on Canadian inputs could disrupt the cross-border supply chains used to make pulp, paper, packaging and tissue in the US14. On 23 October, FPAC welcomed federal changes that extend tariff-related Work-Sharing measures through March 2028, without mentioning the new US list12.

The government of Canada had not published a statement on the 23 October proclamation on canada.ca by 28 October, as far as SPI can find. Employment and Social Development Canada opened applications for its Workforce Retention and Retraining Program on 22 October, part of $3.5 billion of rapid response supports announced in August, its release says10.

Who gains and who pays from 30 October

US buyers of Canadian corrugated boxes. Importers of boxes under 4819.10.00 stop paying the 50% Section 338 duty on entries from 30 October. The saving applies to any buyer that sources shipping cases from Canadian box plants, subject to any other duty that applies.

US buyers of moulded pulp, smaller paper bags and PE bags. Egg trays, produce trays, protective inserts under 4823.70.00, paper bags under 4819.40.00 and polyethylene sacks under 3923.21.00 also leave the duty. These formats are common in food, grocery and protective packaging.

US converters buying Canadian kraft paper, labelstock and coated paper. These buyers pay more. Converters who make bags, wraps, laminates or labels from Canadian 4804.31.60 kraft, 4811.41.10 self-adhesive paper or 4811.59 coated paper face a new 50% duty on those inputs from 30 October.

US buyers of large paper sacks and blank labels. Industrial users of multiwall sacks with a base of 40 cm or more, such as building materials, feed and food ingredient packers, and buyers of unprinted pressure-sensitive labels under 4821.90.20 pay the new duty.

Canadian box, bag and pulp moulders. Cascades and other Canadian packaging producers selling finished boxes and sacks into the US regain access without the 50% duty on those lines. Cascades said in August that it was assessing the potential impact on its operations and believed it was manageable15.

US box makers. From 30 October, domestic producers compete with Canadian boxes that no longer carry the Section 338 duty. Packaging Corporation of America, a US containerboard and box maker, reported Q3 packaging EBITDA of $577.7 million and said earlier price increases were flowing through, as SPI reported on 22 October17.

US buyers of wooden cases and PET. Importers of Canadian wooden packing boxes and cases with solid sides, lids and bottoms under 4415.10.30, and of higher-viscosity PET under 3907.61.00, join the 50% duty from 30 October. Only the solid-sided case line appears in Part B for wooden packing, by SPI’s reading of the annex.

Packaging machinery buyers. US plants buying Canadian filling, sealing, labelling and wrapping machinery under 8422.30.91 and 8422.40.91 no longer pay the 50% duty on those lines from 30 October.

Box, bag and pulp-tray buyers gain on 30 October, while buyers of Canadian kraft, labelstock, large sacks and blank labels pay a new 50% duty
WhoLines affectedChange on 30 OctoberFigure or noteSource
US importers of Canadian boxes4819.10.00Leaves 50% dutyNo official trade value by lineAnnex I, Part A
US importers of moulded pulp and paper bags4823.70.00, 4819.40.00Leaves 50% dutyNo official trade value by lineAnnex I, Part A
US importers of PE bags and PP film3923.21.00, 3920.20.00Leaves 50% dutyNo official trade value by lineAnnex I, Part A
US converters buying kraft and labelstock4804.31.60, 4811.41.10Joins 50% dutyNo official trade value by lineAnnex I, Part B
US buyers of large sacks and blank labels4819.30.00, 4821.90.20Joins 50% dutyNo official trade value by lineAnnex I, Part B
Cascades (Canada)Packaging and tissue exports to the USSome lines leave, some joinQ2 2026 Packaging Products sales C$772mCascades Q2 release
Packaging Corporation of America (US)Competes with Canadian boxesCompetes with boxes that leave the dutyQ3 2026 packaging EBITDA $577.7mSPI PCA report

Source: The White House, Annex I, 23 Oct 2026; Cascades Q2 2026 results release, 6 Aug 2026; SPI PCA report, checked 29 Oct 2026.

Exposure is by HTS line, not by company. Figures in the last column are each company's own reported measures in their own currency (CAD for Cascades, USD for PCA); they are not trade exposure, and must not be added or compared. No official source gives trade values by line.

The pinch point: entry dates, warehouses and classification

The date that counts is the date goods are entered for consumption, or withdrawn from a bonded warehouse for consumption, not the date they ship or are invoiced. The proclamation’s effective clause uses that test, and Annex II applies the same time to the HTSUS changes4. SPI has not found a separate provision in the proclamation for goods already in transit.

That creates two incentives on opposite sides of the line. An importer holding Canadian corrugated boxes in a bonded warehouse gains by withdrawing them on or after 30 October. An importer of Canadian kraft paper or labels gains by entering or withdrawing before 12:01 a.m. on 30 October. Foreign trade zones carry a constraint: CBP’s earlier messages say goods subject to the duty may only be admitted to a zone in privileged foreign status5.

Classification is the second risk. Several Part A and Part B lines sit side by side. Sacks and bags with a base 40 cm wide or more (4819.30.00) join the duty while other sacks and bags (4819.40.00) leave it, so the width of a bag’s base now decides a 50% duty. Coated paperboard in 4811.51 leaves while coated paper in 4811.59 joins.

CBP had not published a CSMS message implementing the 30 October changes that SPI has seen by 28 October. Its earlier messages set out filing rules, drawback eligibility for the 50% headings and Chapter 98 treatment5.

Drawback is the third lever. CBP’s 11 September message says the additional duties under 9903.03.12 to 9903.03.14 are eligible for drawback, and that the duty does not apply to goods properly entered under a qualifying Chapter 98 provision, except 9802.00.40, 9802.00.50, 9802.00.60 and 9802.00.80, where it applies to the value of processing, repairs or assembly5. For a US converter that imports Canadian kraft paper, makes bags and exports them, drawback may matter more from 30 October than before; whether a claim applies is a question for a customs broker.

SPI analysis

For most packaging buyers the risk is not the rate but the line. Importers should check with their customs broker which subheading each Canadian part number is entered under, and whether that subheading appears in Part A or Part B, before the first entries on 30 October.

How the US duty compares with Canada's countermeasures and Section 232

Three sets of measures now overlap on cross-border packaging trade. The US Section 338 duty applies at 50% to listed Canadian goods. Section 232 duties apply to certain metals, wood and other products, and the White House says Section 338 duties apply in addition to them2. The fact sheet ties the October change to Canada’s withdrawal from a near-final trade deal and its retaliatory tariffs, and cites the President’s Section 338 authority to amend earlier proclamations when the public interest requires it.

Canada’s counter tariffs, which Finance Canada announced on 25 August and applied from 8 September, run at 15, 25 and 50% on US goods, matching the US rate on each product, and draw on products targeted by US Section 338 and Section 232 measures9. The Canadian release named pulp and paper among the sectors in focus but did not list packaging lines in its text.

The two sides count the trade differently. The White House fact sheet says Canada imposed retaliatory tariffs on about $20 billion of US exports, while Finance Canada said its counter tariffs cover $27.6 billion of imports from the US. Neither release states the currency, and the figures measure different things, so they are not comparable.

Canada’s support measures run alongside. Finance Canada’s August package totalled $7.5 billion, including $3.5 billion of rapid response supports for workers and employers, again with no currency stated, and ESDC’s programme runs from October 2026 to March 202810.

The US Section 338 duty, Section 232 duties and Canada's counter tariffs now overlap on cross-border packaging trade
MeasureApplied byRateScope as statedValue as stated
Section 338 duty (Proclamation 11048, as amended)United States50%Listed Canadian goods, USMCA origin or not; changes from 30 Oct 2026$27.6 billion of Canadian goods, per Finance Canada
Section 232 dutiesUnited StatesVaries by productMetals, certain wood products and other lines; Section 338 applies in additionNot stated in these sources
Canadian counter tariffsCanada15%, 25% or 50%US goods drawn from products hit by US Section 338 and 232 measures, from 8 Sep 2026$27.6 billion of US imports, per Finance Canada; about $20 billion, per the White House

Source: The White House, proclamation and fact sheet, 23 Oct 2026; CBP CSMS 69606660 and 69851916; Department of Finance Canada, checked 29 Oct 2026.

Rates and values as stated by each government. Dollar figures are as published; neither the White House fact sheet nor Finance Canada states the currency, and the figures measure different trade flows. Do not add, net or compare them.

SPI analysis

A packaging line removed from the US list on 30 October does not change Canada’s counter tariffs, which follow their own schedule. A US exporter of paper or packaging into Canada should check Finance Canada’s counter tariff list separately, and Canadian packaging rules in the SPI Regulation Tracker for Canada.

What it means for you

SPI analysis

These points follow from the sources above. They are business guidance, not legal or customs advice; importers should check with their customs broker.

  • Brand owners and retailers: for Canadian corrugated boxes, paper bags and moulded pulp trays entered from 30 October, ask suppliers how the end of the 50% duty will show in landed prices.
  • Procurement teams: list every Canadian part number by HTS subheading and mark it Part A, Part B or unchanged. Large sacks, blank labels and kraft paper move the other way.
  • Converters: if you buy Canadian kraft paper, self-adhesive labelstock or coated paper, the 50% duty starts on 30 October. Check alternative US or other non-Canadian supply in the SPI Buyers Database.
  • Canadian exporters: boxes, smaller bags and moulded pulp leave the Section 338 list on 30 October, but your US customers’ entry date decides the duty, not your ship date.
  • Logistics and customs teams: time warehouse withdrawals and entries around 12:01 a.m. on 30 October, and watch for a CBP CSMS message with the updated list.
  • Packaging engineers: where a bag’s base width is near 40 cm, confirm the classification with your broker, since 4819.30.00 and 4819.40.00 now sit on opposite sides of the duty.

Track US packaging rules in the SPI Regulation Tracker for the United States, and Canadian producer costs in SPI’s Ontario Blue Box fees report.

The 30 October list change follows a July proclamation, an August start and a September scope change
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The 30 October list change follows a July proclamation, an August start and a September scope change8 dated items from 20 Jul 2026 to 31 Mar 2028.2026202720282029Today20 Jul 2026: Proclamation 11048 sets 50% Section 338 duty on listed Canadian goods22 Aug 2026: Duty takes effect at 12:01 a.m. ET after a three-day pause8 Sep 2026: Canada's counter tariffs apply15 Sep 2026: First scope change: 122 classifications added, 10 removed29 Sep 2026: Import exclusions for certain alcohol, vehicles and dairy23 Oct 2026: Proclamation signed: 22 subheadings out, 100 in30 Oct 2026: Changes apply to goods entered from 12:01 a.m. ET31 Mar 2028: Canada's tariff-related Work-Sharing measures and WRRP run to March 2028The 30 October list change follows a July proclamation, an August start and a September scope change8 dated items from 20 Jul 2026 to 31 Mar 2028.2026202720282029Today20 Jul 2026: Proclamation 11048 sets 50% Section 338 duty on listed Canadian goods22 Aug 2026: Duty takes effect at 12:01 a.m. ET after a three-day pause8 Sep 2026: Canada's counter tariffs apply15 Sep 2026: First scope change: 122 classifications added, 10 removed29 Sep 2026: Import exclusions for certain alcohol, vehicles and dairy23 Oct 2026: Proclamation signed: 22 subheadings out, 100 in30 Oct 2026: Changes apply to goods entered from 12:01 a.m. ET31 Mar 2028: Canada's tariff-related Work-Sharing measures and WRRP run to March 2028
  1. Proclamation 11048 sets 50% Section 338 duty on listed Canadian goodspast
  2. Duty takes effect at 12:01 a.m. ET after a three-day pausepast
  3. Canada's counter tariffs applypast
  4. First scope change: 122 classifications added, 10 removedpast
  5. Import exclusions for certain alcohol, vehicles and dairypast
  6. Proclamation signed: 22 subheadings out, 100 inpast
  7. Changes apply to goods entered from 12:01 a.m. ETnext
  8. Canada's tariff-related Work-Sharing measures and WRRP run to March 2028next

Source: The White House proclamations and fact sheet; CBP CSMS messages; Department of Finance Canada; ESDC; FPAC, checked 14 Oct 2026.

Show the data
The 30 October list change follows a July proclamation, an August start and a September scope change
DateLabelCategoryLink
2026-07-20Proclamation 11048 sets 50% Section 338 duty on listed Canadian goodspasthttps://www.pmmi.org/blog/us-announces-50-tariff-on-select-imports-from-canada-using-section-338
2026-08-22Duty takes effect at 12:01 a.m. ET after a three-day pausepasthttps://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/USDHSCBP/bulletins/4261d04
2026-09-08Canada's counter tariffs applypasthttps://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/news/2026/08/canada-announces-targeted-countermeasures-and-substantive-support-for-workers-and-businesses-in-response-to-us-tariffs.html
2026-09-15First scope change: 122 classifications added, 10 removedpasthttps://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/USDHSCBP/bulletins/429db0c
2026-09-29Import exclusions for certain alcohol, vehicles and dairypasthttps://content.govdelivery.com/bulletins/gd/USDHSCBP-42ce49a
2026-10-23Proclamation signed: 22 subheadings out, 100 inpasthttps://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/2026ModifyingAuto338.prc_.AnnexI-3.pdf
2026-10-30Changes apply to goods entered from 12:01 a.m. ETnexthttps://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2026/10/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-further-modifies-canadian-products-subject-to-tariffs-under-section-338/
2028-03-31Canada's tariff-related Work-Sharing measures and WRRP run to March 2028nexthttps://www.fpac.ca/posts/fpac-welcomes-federal-action-to-improve-access-to-the-work-sharing-program

What to watch next

  • 29 Oct 2026: last full day on which Canadian kraft paper, labels and large sacks can be entered without the new duty, and on which boxes, bags and moulded pulp still pay it.
  • 30 Oct 2026: from 12:01 a.m. eastern time, the Part A lines leave and the Part B lines join the 50% duty.
  • No date confirmed by SPI: a CBP CSMS message implementing the 30 October changes, with the updated HTSUS list.
  • No date confirmed by SPI: any further change to the list by CBP notice in the Federal Register, which the proclamation allows.
  • No date confirmed by SPI: a statement from the government of Canada, FPAC or AF&PA on the 23 October list.
  • March 2028: Canada’s tariff-related Work-Sharing measures and the Workforce Retention and Retraining Program are set to end.

FAQ

What changes on 30 October 2026?

For goods entered or withdrawn from warehouse from 12:01 a.m. eastern time on 30 October, 22 subheadings of Canadian goods leave the 50% Section 338 duty and 100 join it. The lists are in Annex I, Parts A and B, of the 23 October proclamation.

Are Canadian corrugated boxes still subject to the 50% duty?

Not from 30 October. Corrugated cartons, boxes and cases under HTS 4819.10.00 are in Part A, so entries from 12:01 a.m. that day no longer pay the Section 338 duty; entries before then still do.

Which packaging materials become subject to the duty?

Part B adds unbleached kraft paper (4804.31.60), composite paper, self-adhesive and coated papers, sacks with a base 40 cm wide or more (4819.30.00) and unprinted pressure-sensitive labels (4821.90.20). It also adds wooden packing cases (4415.10.30) and higher-viscosity PET (3907.61.00).

Does USMCA origin exempt goods from the duty?

No. The White House fact sheet of 23 October says the Section 338 tariffs apply to covered goods whether or not they originate under USMCA, and in addition to Section 232 tariffs.

What about goods in a bonded warehouse?

The proclamation applies the change to goods withdrawn from warehouse for consumption on or after 12:01 a.m. on 30 October, as well as to goods entered then. Importers should check timing with their customs broker.

Has CBP issued guidance for the 30 October change?

SPI had not seen a CBP CSMS message for the 30 October change by 28 October. CBP’s 11 September message, CSMS 69851916, covered the previous change on 15 September.

Sources

  1. The White House, Further Modifying the Scope of Products of Canada Subject to the Additional Duties Imposed to Offset Canadian Discrimination Against the Commerce of the United States With Respect to Motor Vehicles, 23 October 2026 (consulted 2026-10-28)
  2. The White House, Fact sheet on further modifying Canadian products subject to tariffs under Section 338, 23 October 2026 (consulted 2026-10-28)
  3. The White House, Annex I, Part A and Part B (PDF), 23 October 2026 (consulted 2026-10-28)
  4. The White House, Annex II, HTSUS modifications (PDF), 23 October 2026 (consulted 2026-10-28)
  5. US Customs and Border Protection, CSMS # 69851916: Modifying Section 338 Additional Duties on Certain Goods of Canada, 11 September 2026 (consulted 2026-10-28)
  6. US Customs and Border Protection, CSMS # 69606660: GUIDANCE: Section 338 Additional Duties on Certain Goods of Canada, 21 August 2026 (consulted 2026-10-28)
  7. US Customs and Border Protection, CSMS # 70050970: Certain Canadian Products Excluded from Importation into the United States, 28 September 2026 (consulted 2026-10-28)
  8. The American Presidency Project, Proclamation 11065: Modifying the Scope of Products of Canada Subject to the Additional Duties, 8 September 2026 (consulted 2026-10-28)
  9. Department of Finance Canada, Canada announces targeted countermeasures and substantive support for workers and businesses in response to U.S. tariffs, 25 August 2026 (consulted 2026-10-28)
  10. Employment and Social Development Canada, Workforce Retention and Retraining Program launched to help employers keep their workforce while facing economic challenges, 22 October 2026 (consulted 2026-10-28)
  11. Forest Products Association of Canada, FPAC Calls for Immediate Action as New U.S. Tariffs Hit Canada’s Forest Sector, 24 August 2026 (consulted 2026-10-28)
  12. Forest Products Association of Canada, FPAC Welcomes Federal Action to Improve Access to the Work-Sharing Program, 23 October 2026 (consulted 2026-10-28)
  13. American Forest & Paper Association, AF&PA Statement on U.S.-Canada Trade Discussions, 25 August 2026 (consulted 2026-10-28)
  14. American Forest & Paper Association, AF&PA Raises Concerns About Impact of Canadian Tariffs on North American Supply Chains, 22 July 2026 (consulted 2026-10-28)
  15. Cascades, Cascades Reports Results for the Second Quarter of 2026, 6 August 2026 (consulted 2026-10-28)
  16. PMMI, US announces 50% tariff on select imports from Canada using Section 338, 21 July 2026 (consulted 2026-10-28)
  17. SPI, PCA lifted Q3 packaging EBITDA 17% to $578 million as price increases landed and its mills ran full, 22 October 2026 (consulted 2026-10-28)

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