Oregon's 2027 EPR fees fall 69% on one basket while Colorado's rise 25.5%, and most of the gap is a reserve return

Two states, one PRO, two ways to build a rate

Oregon’s programme runs under the Recycling Modernization Act in ORS chapter 459A, tracked as PR-US-002, and Colorado’s under HB22-1355 at C.R.S. 25-17-701 to 25-17-716, tracked as PR-US-003 in the SPI Regulation Tracker for the United States. DEQ says CAA could begin charging Oregon fees on 1 July 2025, and CDPHE says producers had to pay dues on covered materials in January 2026 and each year after.

Both schedules start from the same idea. CAA’s 2027 Oregon document says its rates reflect producer-reported supply data, projected programme costs and applicable regulatory requirements, and DEQ’s producer page states that fee rates change annually. Colorado’s statute requires dues to vary by material and by whether it is readily recyclable, and to rest on the net cost of recycling services for each material (section 25-17-705(4)(i)).

The difference is in the columns. Oregon’s 2026 table printed a base fee, a SIM portion and a final rate, with SIM at zero on every row, so base equalled final. Its 2027 table replaces SIM with two drawdown columns, “Reserve Drawdown – SIM Only” and “Reserve Drawdown – Other”, which reduce the base fee to the final fee rate. Colorado’s tables print base dues, a Detriments Malus, a Not on MRL Malus and a High Recycling Rates Bonus, which together give final dues.

Each state also tags each line with an acceptance status. In Oregon a line is on the statewide Uniform Statewide Collection List (USCL), on the PRO’s own acceptance list (PRO), or on neither (N/A). In Colorado a line is on the MRL, on the Additional Material List (AML), or not collected (N/C). The tags carry money: they are where most of each state’s eco-modulation lives.

Units changed too. Oregon’s 2026 table is in cents per pound to one decimal; its 2027 table is in dollars per pound to two decimals, and so is Colorado’s 2027 table. SPI converts every rate at 1 US cent per pound = USD 22.0462 per metric tonne, the method used in Ledger article 04.

One basket, four tables

SPI keeps the basket from its per-tonne comparison so that 2026 figures match and only the rates move (Exhibit 2). It is a comparison device, not a market average, and readers should replace it with their own mix in the SPI EPR & Plastic Tax Calculator.

The basket is 220,462 pounds. All rates are as published, before active bonuses, the Oregon private recycling exemption and any flat fee. Exhibits 3 and 4 show each basket line in each state and year.

Oregon, line by line

Two steps sit inside the Oregon move. First, base rates fall on six of the seven basket lines. Film drops from 43.0 cents to 29 cents a pound, PP bottles from 38.0 to 32 cents and glass from 10.0 to 4 cents, while clear PET bottles are the exception, rising from 25.0 to 28 cents. On base rates alone the basket falls USD 7,341.71, or 24.1%.

Second, the drawdowns. The “other” column takes between 3 cents (glass) and 17 cents (film) off each basket line, and the SIM column takes 1 cent off glass. CAA’s schedule says reserve balances are evaluated at the material-category level, to decide whether funds stay in the programme or reduce future rates, which is why the cut differs by line rather than being one percentage.

The result is that three basket lines end at or below zero. Glass is invoiced at USD 0.00, aluminium containers at minus 9 cents and, outside the basket, clear or natural HDPE bottles at minus 4 cents, from a 2027 base of 11 cents. SPI has not yet confirmed how CAA applies a negative line on an invoice that also carries positive lines, for example whether a credit can exceed a producer’s other charges.

Colorado, line by line

Every Colorado basket line costs more in 2027. Corrugated rises 25% (8.0 to 10 cents a pound), film 29.2% (48.0 to 62 cents), steel 57.1% (7.0 to 11 cents) and aluminium from 2.0 to 5 cents. PP bottles move least, from 20.0 to 21 cents. On base dues the basket rises from USD 23,445.89 to USD 30,026.94, or 28.1%.

The bonus column changes character. In 2026 the 5% high recycling rate bonus appeared on glass, aluminium, steel, corrugated, clear PET and both HDPE bottle lines. In 2027 it shows on corrugated, steel, clear PET and the two HDPE bottle lines, at 1 cent each, and the glass and aluminium rows show no bonus. CAA’s 2027 Colorado schedule does not say why; SPI has not yet confirmed whether the change reflects rounding to whole cents or a different benchmark.

Film is the line to watch. It sits on the AML in both years, with zero in both malus columns, and at USD 1,366.86 per tonne it is the dearest basket line in either state in 2027. Six tonnes of film are 28.5% of the Colorado basket bill in 2027.

Beyond the basket: where the big lines moved

Lines outside the basket show the same split (Exhibit 5). In Oregon the foamed polystyrene container line falls from USD 1.38 to USD 0.74 a pound final, and PP film and laminates from USD 1.02 to USD 0.56. In Colorado the same foam line rises from USD 1.72 to USD 2.09, and laminates from USD 0.74 to USD 0.78.

Three lines deserve a note. Gable-top and aseptic cartons in Oregon keep a 2027 base of 17 cents, the same as 2026, but the SIM drawdown (8 cents) and other drawdown (6 cents) take the final rate to 3 cents. Oregon’s foamed container line sits beside the state’s sale ban on foam food containers, in force since 1 January 2025 under SB 543 (PR-US-013); SPI has not yet confirmed which foamed formats still report under the line. And Colorado’s 2027 schedule sets all four certified compostable lines at USD 0.27 a pound, most of it from the Not on MRL malus.

For paper buyers, SPI’s PCA results report set out the 2026 paper lines in both states. The 2027 change is a divergence: Oregon’s corrugated final rate falls to 2 cents a pound and Colorado’s rises to 10 cents.

The fee stack: a framework for reading any CAA schedule

The two states use the same building blocks, switched on in different combinations. SPI calls this the fee stack: six layers that turn a material line into an invoice (Exhibit 6). For each pack, a team can ask which layers apply in each state, and which one it can change.

Layer 1 and 2: material and status. In both states the base fee already prices acceptance status. Oregon’s clear PET bottles (USCL) have a 2027 base of 28 cents against 69 cents for pigmented PET bottles (N/A). Colorado’s statute requires dues to vary with recyclability, and its AML lines are set at least 20% above the average of similar MRL lines, and N/C lines at least 10% above similar AML lines.

Layer 3: passive eco-modulation. Only Colorado prints it. Its 2027 schedule applies a 5% Detriments Malus for materials that disrupt recycling and a 5% High Recycling Rate Incentive, automatically from supply data. On the basket the net effect is minus USD 1,300.89, because no basket line carries a malus.

Layer 4: reserve drawdown. Only Oregon has it in 2027, and it is the largest layer on the basket. It rewards no particular design: a pack pays less because its category held reserves, not because of anything the producer changed.

Layer 5: active bonuses. In Oregon, DEQ’s approval letter of 12 September 2025 raised the Tier 2 and Tier 3 bonus multipliers from 2.25 and 2.5 to 2.5 and 3.0, and the 25 largest producers file life cycle evaluations by 31 December 2026 (PR-US-002). In Colorado, CDPHE says the Solid and Hazardous Waste Commission adopted producer eco-modulation in Section 18.9 in November 2025, and CAA’s 2027 schedule says detailed guidance, including CDPHE bonus benchmarks, would be posted by 1 October 2026. SPI has not yet confirmed the 2027 value of any active bonus in either state.

Layer 6: flat fees. Covered in the small producer section below.

The basket, priced line by line

Oregon 2027 final. 45 x 44.09 + 25 x 0.00 + 8 x 418.88 + 6 x 462.97 + 6 x 264.55 + 4 x (-198.42) + 6 x 88.18 = USD 9,435.61. Plastic is 20% of the weight and 81.8% of the bill, up from 49.7%, because glass is now free and aluminium is a credit. PET and PP bottles, 14 tonnes, carry USD 6,128.86 of the bill.

Colorado 2027. 45 x 220.46 + 25 x 110.23 + 8 x 396.83 + 6 x 462.97 + 6 x 1,366.86 + 4 x 110.23 + 6 x 242.51 = USD 28,726.05. Corrugated is the largest line at USD 9,920.70, 34.5% of the bill, and film the second at USD 8,201.16.

The gap. At 2026 rates Oregon was USD 7,540.02 dearer than Colorado on the basket. At 2027 final rates Colorado is USD 19,290.44 dearer, about 3.0 times Oregon’s bill. Even against Oregon’s 2027 base rates, before any drawdown, Colorado’s 2027 basket costs USD 5,643.95 more.

Eco-modulation in practice: what format choices cost

Exhibit 8 prices two common format changes on the basket in each schedule: moving the 6 tonnes of PE film to the laminate line, and moving the 8 tonnes of clear PET bottles to pigmented PET bottles.

Oregon’s absolute penalty falls for 2027, because laminates drop from USD 1.02 to USD 0.56 a pound final and pigmented PET from USD 0.67 to USD 0.53. But the basket shrinks faster, so a laminate or a coloured bottle now adds about three fifths to the bill. In Colorado the opposite holds: film rises faster than laminates (62 against 78 cents final), so the laminate premium narrows to 16 cents a pound.

Colour is the bigger lever in Colorado. Pigmented PET bottles carry a 2 cent Detriments Malus in 2027 (base 40 cents, final 42 cents), while clear PET bottles earn a 1 cent bonus (base 19 cents, final 18 cents). That is a 24 cent a pound gap, or USD 529.11 per tonne, on the same polymer.

Glass: zero in Oregon, five cents in Colorado

Glass is the material whose treatment differs most (Exhibit 9). It is 25% of the basket’s weight, so the difference matters to any producer of bottled or jarred goods.

Oregon glass carries a PRO status: it is on CAA’s own acceptance list rather than the statewide commingled list. DEQ’s rulemaking 3 proposes to cut PRO glass duties further, and SPI’s rulemaking 3 report covers the proposal and its 30 October 2026 comment deadline. The 2027 schedule now answers the fee side for one year: glass’s base rate falls to 4 cents and the drawdowns take it to zero.

Ceramics, listed with glass in both schedules, are not on any acceptance list and stay costly: USD 0.83 a pound final in Oregon in 2027 and USD 0.55 in Colorado. CAA’s Q1 2026 Oregon report shows the glass incentive paid to local governments at USD 79.08 per US ton in that quarter, after a 2.7% inflation adjustment (SPI fee-market notes, 14 October 2026).

Small producers: flat fees moved in opposite directions

Both statutes exempt the smallest producers: in Oregon, global gross revenue under USD 5 million or under one metric ton of covered products (ORS 459A.863(32)), and in Colorado, revenue under USD 5 million, indexed annually, or under one ton of covered materials (C.R.S. 25-17-713). Above those lines, both schedules offer an optional flat fee for producers supplying 10 tons or less (Exhibit 10).

Oregon’s flat fees fall between 41.7% (the lowest tier, USD 1,200 to USD 700) and 48.0% (USD 2,500 to USD 1,300). Colorado’s rise between 11.5% and 13.9%. CAA’s Colorado schedule describes the flat rate as a way to minimise administrative and reporting costs, and in both states the rate does not vary by material. Oregon’s 2027 schedule adds that the tiers are also available to producers with more than USD 10 million in gross revenue.

The flat fee buys simplicity, not always a saving. On SPI’s basket mix, per-material fees at the top of each tier are below the flat fee in all eight 2027 cells. The answer flips for plastic-heavy portfolios: 10 tons of PP film would cost USD 12,345.90 at Oregon’s 2027 final rate and USD 15,211.90 at Colorado’s, against flat fees of USD 3,100 and USD 4,100.

Invoicing and cash: two halves in 2027

Both 2027 schedules state the same billing pattern: two invoices for annual fees, 50% in January and 50% in July, each showing fees by material category. For Colorado this follows a first year in which CAA’s Colorado page set 1 January 2026 as the date by which producers remit dues. SPI has not yet confirmed how CAA split its 2026 Oregon invoices.

On the basket, each 2027 invoice is about USD 4,718 in Oregon and about USD 14,363 in Colorado (SPI calculation). Because rates are set from prior-year supply data, the 2027 invoices rest on 2025 tonnage: DEQ’s producer page says prior-year data are due to CAA by 31 May each year, starting in 2026.

The National Association of Wholesaler-Distributors (NAW) said on 17 October 2026 that it had asked the US District Court for the District of Oregon to stay its judgment for NAW members while its Ninth Circuit appeal runs. SPI’s report on the stay motion sets out the dates. This article takes no view on the case; producers should take questions about it to counsel.

Scenarios: what the basket could cost in 2028

No 2028 schedule exists. SPI ran the basket through stated assumptions, one state at a time, using only published 2026 and 2027 rates (Exhibit 12).

SPI calculation: Oregon’s base case halves each line’s 2027 drawdown, giving USD 0.0450 a pound for corrugated, USD 0.0200 for glass, USD 0.2350 for clear PET, USD 0.2650 for PP bottles, USD 0.2050 for film, minus USD 0.0600 for aluminium and USD 0.0650 for steel, and a basket of USD 16,259.12. The point is the range, not the midpoint: Oregon’s 2028 basket could plausibly sit anywhere from the 2027 final to the 2027 base, a spread of USD 13,646.49 on 100 tonnes.

Colorado’s range is narrower in percentage terms but larger in dollars per tonne. Holding 2027 dues gives USD 287.26 per tonne, and repeating the 2027 step gives USD 360.60. The statute’s surplus rule matters here: under section 25-17-705(4), surpluses must go back into the programme or lower dues, so a future drawdown in Colorado is possible, but SPI has seen no CAA statement planning one.