Ardagh Metal Packaging raised 2026 EBITDA guidance to $785 to 795 million and will add UK and Spain can lines

How AMP's two regions reach drinks brands

AMP reports two segments, Europe and Americas, and sells beverage cans to drinks brands and fillers in both. The Americas segment covers North America and Brazil, which the release reports separately for shipments: North America fell 1% in the third quarter and Brazil fell 5%¹.

AMP is controlled by Ardagh Holdings S.A. (AHSA). A 13 August release from AMP said AHSA’s board had instructed its advisers to prepare for a potential sale of AMP, with Evercore and Kirkland & Ellis as advisers, and that AHSA had set no deadline or definitive timeline⁵. On 15 October AMP filed a 6-K noting a further update by AHSA on its sales process; SPI has not yet confirmed what that update says, because the 6-K refers readers to AHSA’s own release.

The same August release estimated that replacing services AMP now receives from an AHSA subsidiary would cost about $30 million a year on a standalone basis, if a sale ends the services agreement. The 22 October results release does not mention the sale process.

AMP’s beverage cans are aluminium, and its release says revenue rose principally on the pass through of higher input costs to customers. The release does not name aluminium prices or tariffs; it refers to input cost recovery and some inflationary headwinds. The European can industry’s trade body points to recycling as the other side of the metal bill.

The statement, published with European Aluminium, put the aluminium beverage can recycling rate at 76.3% in 2023 across the EU, UK, Switzerland, Norway and Iceland, and cited Malta’s rise to 80% from 50% after it introduced a deposit return scheme⁸.

What AMP reported on 22 October

The quarter. Revenue was $1,694 million against $1,428 million, up 19% at reported and constant currency. Adjusted EBITDA was $213 million against $208 million, up 2% on both bases. Profit for the period was $44 million against $27 million, and earnings per share were $0.07 against $0.04; adjusted earnings per share were $0.08 in both quarters¹.

Why revenue outran profit. The release says the revenue increase principally reflected the pass through of higher input costs to customers and favourable volume/mix effects. Group adjusted EBITDA was 12.6% of revenue against 14.6% a year earlier, by SPI’s calculation. Revenue rose $266 million while adjusted EBITDA rose $5 million.

Shipments. Global beverage can shipments rose 2%. Europe grew 6%, and the Americas fell 1%, with North America down 1%, which the release calls a strong sequential improvement on the second quarter, and Brazil down 5% due to customer mix and a contract reset. The release gives percentage changes only, not can counts.

Guidance. AMP raised its full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $785 to 795 million, assuming modest global shipment growth. Its July release had raised the range to $775 to 790 million from $750 to 775 million⁴. The new midpoint of $790 million is $7.5 million above July’s and $27.5 million above the range July replaced, by SPI’s calculation.

The fourth quarter. AMP expects fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $153 to 163 million against $166 million in the fourth quarter of 2025, or $164 million at constant currency. The release says the outlook reflects current exchange rates, some inflationary headwinds and a comparison with 4% shipment growth a year earlier.

Dividend and balance sheet. AMP declared a quarterly interim dividend of $0.10 per ordinary share, payable on 10 December 2026 to shareholders of record on 26 November, according to its dividend release³. Net debt was $4,104 million at 30 September, net leverage 5.1 times adjusted EBITDA against 5.2 times a year earlier, and liquidity $736 million.

Cash flow. Cash flows from operating activities were $179 million in the quarter against $181 million a year earlier. Net capital expenditure was $43 million, and the release separately reports maintenance capital expenditure of $34 million and growth investment capital expenditure of $9 million, against $31 million and $19 million a year earlier. Adjusted free cash flow after growth capital expenditure was $106 million against $104 million, the release says¹.

AMP's third quarter line by line

Europe carried the quarter. Revenue rose 11% to $693 million, or 12% at constant currency, and adjusted EBITDA rose 11% to $91 million. The release attributes the profit gain mainly to higher input cost recovery, partly offset by an IFRS 15 contract asset impact and higher operations and overhead costs¹. Europe’s adjusted EBITDA margin held at 13.1%, by SPI’s calculation.

The Americas grew revenue faster but earned less. Revenue rose 25% to $1,001 million, also principally on cost pass-through and volume/mix, while adjusted EBITDA fell 3% to $122 million. The release cites higher operations and overhead costs and lower input cost recovery, partly offset by favourable volume/mix. The Americas margin fell to 12.2% from 15.7%, by SPI’s calculation.

AMP’s chief executive said in the release that favourable volume/mix in the Americas, driven by continued demand for specialty cans in North America, helped offset the expected impact of contract resets. The release also names a contract reset as one cause of Brazil’s 5% shipment fall.

Against the second quarter, both segments earned less in sequence. AMP’s July release reported second-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $105 million for Europe on revenue of $698 million, and $135 million for the Americas on revenue of $1,015 million⁴. Seasonal patterns differ by region, so the moves from the second to the third quarter are context, not a trend.

SPI calculation (what the new guidance leaves for the fourth quarter): nine-month adjusted EBITDA was $632 million, so full-year guidance of $785 to 795 million implies $153 to 163 million in the fourth quarter, which matches AMP’s own fourth-quarter range. Nine-month Europe adjusted EBITDA rose 30.3% to $271 million while Americas fell 1.1% to $361 million.

Cash and debt moved with the season. Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash were $213 million at 30 September against $522 million at 31 December 2025, total borrowings were $4,343 million and undrawn facilities $523 million. On a like-for-like basis that adjusts for the fourth-quarter 2025 refinancing of preferred shares, the release says leverage fell from 5.6 times.

Who gains and who pays after AMP's quarter

European drinks brands. Europe shipments grew 6% and European revenue rose 11% to $693 million, with segment adjusted EBITDA up 11% to $91 million on higher input cost recovery. Buyers in Europe paid the passed-through cost, and AMP’s planned UK and Spain lines are the clearest sign in the release of new European capacity¹.

UK and Spanish fillers. Lines in existing plants in these two markets put new can supply close to their filling sites. The release does not say when the lines start, so SPI has not yet confirmed whether they serve 2027 contract volumes.

Americas drinks brands. Americas revenue rose 25% to $1,001 million while segment adjusted EBITDA fell 3% to $122 million. The release cites lower input cost recovery and higher operations and overhead costs, and the chief executive says specialty can demand helped offset the expected impact of contract resets.

Brazilian customers. Brazil shipments fell 5% due to customer mix and a contract reset, after a 15% fall in the second quarter, according to AMP’s July release⁴. The release gives no Brazil revenue or profit figure.

AMP shareholders. The 10c dividend continues, and capital allocation priorities are unchanged, the release says. AHSA’s potential sale of AMP remains open, with no timeline set as of the August release.

Aluminium recyclers and metal suppliers. Higher can volumes in Europe need more aluminium, and the European can recycling rate of 76.3% for 2023 reported by Metal Packaging Europe shows how much of that metal can come back through collection⁸. Deposit schemes in the UK and the EU, set out below, aim to raise that rate.

AMP’s lenders. Net debt was $4,104 million and net leverage 5.1 times. Liquidity was $736 million at 30 September, with $523 million of undrawn facilities.

Competing can makers. Crown’s European Beverage unit grew sales 17.3% with flat income, as SPI’s Crown story reported, and its Spain capacity project is on plan, so AMP is not the only can maker adding capacity in Spain¹³.

The pinch point: cost recovery against contract resets

The quarter turned on who carried the input cost. In Europe, AMP recovered more of it and held its margin at 13.1%, by SPI’s calculation. In the Americas, recovery fell short and margin fell to 12.2%, as contract resets and higher operating costs met a 1% fall in shipments¹.

Cost recovery depends on contract terms that the release does not set out. It names no aluminium price, premium or tariff, and it does not say how much of the $266 million revenue increase was pure pass-through. SPI has not yet confirmed that split, which matters because pass-through revenue adds cost for the buyer without adding margin for the can maker.

The fourth-quarter guide is the test. AMP expects $153 to 163 million against $166 million a year earlier, citing some inflationary headwinds and a tougher comparison with 4% prior-year shipment growth. Even the top of that range is $3 million below the prior-year quarter, by SPI’s calculation.

Ownership is the second open question. AMP’s 13 August release said AHSA had set no deadline or definitive timeline for a potential sale, and estimated that standalone replacement of shared services would cost about $30 million a year if the services agreement ends⁵. That figure is small against the $785 to 795 million guidance range, but it is a recurring cost.

How AMP compares with Crown and Sonoco

Three metal packaging groups have reported third-quarter results since 19 October, all in USD but on different measures and mixes.

Crown Holdings reported on 19 October that net sales rose to $3,711 million from $3,202 million, including $405 million of passed-through material costs, while segment income eased to $484 million from $490 million⁷. Crown’s global beverage can shipments grew more than 6%, with Europe up 4% and North America up 6%.

The European pattern changed between quarters. AMP’s July release reported second-quarter Europe shipments up 5%, Americas down 6% and Brazil down 15%⁴, and SPI’s Crown story reported Crown’s second-quarter Europe shipments up 7%. In the third quarter AMP’s European growth rose to 6% while Crown’s slowed to 4%.

AMP’s Americas shipments fell 1% in the same quarter that Crown’s North American shipments rose 6%. The two companies report different regional perimeters, so SPI does not read this as a market share figure.

Sonoco reported on 21 October and is a food can and paper can maker rather than a beverage can maker. As SPI’s Sonoco story reported, it cut its 2026 guidance after poor harvests reduced metal food can volumes¹⁴.

The rules shaping beverage can demand in Europe and the UK

AMP’s release does not discuss regulation, but its new lines go into markets where deposit and reuse rules are changing. In the EU, the Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation requires each Member State to separately collect at least 90% by weight of single-use plastic and metal beverage containers up to three litres by 1 January 2029, with a deposit return system where other means fall short, under PR-EU-007⁹.

In the UK, drinks in single-use PET, steel or aluminium containers of 150 ml to 3 litres sold in England and Northern Ireland enter a deposit return scheme from 1 October 2027, under PR-GB-004. Drinks producers register with the deposit management organisation, pay a fee and an amount equal to the deposit on each item, and print the scheme logo and return code¹⁰.

In Spain, Royal Decree 1055/2022, tracked as PR-ES-002, sets reuse targets for beverages, including HORECA beer targets of 80% in 2025, 85% in 2030 and 90% in 2035, and a 10% reuse target for household beverages in 2030¹¹. SPI has not yet confirmed an official start date for a Spanish deposit system.

From 1 January 2030, packaging on the EU market is expected to be recyclable and graded A, B or C under PR-EU-010¹². SPI has not yet confirmed adoption of the delegated acts that will set the grades for cans, ends and coatings.