Minnesota's draft needs assessment puts the first numbers on its packaging targets: recycling from 48% to as much as 65% in ten years, and a recycling system that costs about USD 320 million a year

How the Act is built, section by section

SPI tracks the law as PR-US-006 in the regulation tracker, where its status reads adopted, a label being updated in the 13 October check because membership has been mandatory since 1 July 2025. The Revisor of Statutes lists the Act as sections 115A.144 to 115A.1463 under the heading Packaging waste and producer responsibility; there is no section 115A.1452. Exhibit 2 maps the sections this piece relies on.

Who is a producer. Section 115A.1441, subdivision 26, sets a hierarchy for retail items: the manufacturer selling under its own brand or unbranded, then a licensee, then the brand owner, then the US importer of record where nobody above is present in the United States, then the first distributor into the state. For shipping packaging sent to a consumer, the producer is the person who packs the item for shipment. A party can take on the role by contract if it joins the PRO, and a franchisor is the producer where its franchisees operate in Minnesota.

Who is not. A de minimis producer, under subdivision 13, introduced less than one ton of covered material into Minnesota or earned global gross revenues under USD 2,000,000 in its most recent fiscal year. Government units, 501(c)(3) and (c)(4) organisations, and two classes of paper mill are also outside the definition. MPCA’s page lists product exemptions, including packaging for FDA regulated drugs and medical devices, products under FIFRA, infant formula and medical food, and newspapers and magazines with circulation under 95,000 that cover news and current events.

Who is served. Covered entities, under subdivision 9, include residences, schools, childcare centres, public spaces and nonprofits with annual revenue under USD 35,000,000. The preliminary assessment counted 2,265,170 households in 2024, 3,912 nonprofits, 8,347 public buildings and spaces, and 2,139 schools and childcare facilities, in a population of 5,842,388.

What sits outside. Section 115A.1461, on a deposit return system, does not create one. It states the Legislature’s intent that any bottle deposit enacted later be harmonised with the stewardship programme, with deposit materials exempted or their obligations reduced, and requires a two year transition before the current plan expires.

The needs assessment: two reports, one baseline

Section 115A.1450 sets out two assessments with different jobs. Exhibit 3 compares them.

The preliminary report arrived after its deadline. The statutory deadline was 31 December 2025, and the report’s cover is dated February 2026. It draws mainly on 2023 SCORE data and solid waste plans from 32 counties covering over 75% of the population. It gives a 2023 statewide combined recycling rate of 45.3%, with 48.9% in the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area (TCMA) and 41% in Greater Minnesota. It counted over 600 recycling drop-off sites.

The full assessment carries the weight. Subdivision 4 requires at least 18 items. Three matter most for producers: proposed five year outcome ranges for waste reduction, reuse and return, recycling and composting, and recycled content (clauses 3 and 4); a recommended method for reimbursement rates under section 115A.1455 (clause 11); and an assessment of intentionally added toxic substances (clause 14). Subdivision 5 then makes the assessment’s information the baseline for deciding whether statewide requirements or targets have been met.

The process is consultative but bounded. Subdivision 2 requires MPCA to consult the advisory board, local governments, service providers and PROs on scope, and to respond in writing to comments from the advisory board and PROs on the draft. Subdivision 6 obliges service providers to supply data and lets them ask for trade secret or sales data to be treated as not public, in which case the contractor aggregates it. MPCA’s presentation records a 76% county survey response rate, 119 municipal survey responses covering 34 of 87 counties, and 132 interviews and site visits between March and August 2026.

Where Minnesota starts: access, rates and cost

The draft assessment’s baseline figures are the first statewide picture built for this programme. Exhibit 4 sets out the access and rate measures in MPCA’s presentation.

Access is uneven by housing type. The presentation gives single-family curbside access at about 64%, over 1.1 million units, against 89% for multi-family on-site service, and about 1.5 million dwelling units, about 68%, with service overall. Of single-family homes, 47% are in organised collection, 17% in open hauling, 14% in open market homes that do not take part, 8% have no service and 14% have no data. Section 115A.1455, subdivision 2, requires the PRO to provide collection wherever an entity lacks it but has mixed municipal solid waste collection, so the gaps in Exhibit 4 become a PRO obligation.

Infrastructure is concentrated. The presentation counts 18 recycling facilities, 7 materials recovery facilities, 5 hybrid and 6 mixed waste, about half of them in the TCMA, and 126 transfer stations, which use on average 24% of their area for recycling. It also reports that over 90% of households in environmental justice areas have curbside access, but 21% of them live in counties where access is between 0% and 50%.

Composting is small for covered materials. Of the tons collected for composting, compostable paper accounts for 3,822 tons and compostable plastic for 412, against 100,029 tons of non-covered material. The draft models composting diversion of covered materials rising from 4,238 tons to 5,037 tons. Only about 8% of households take part in organics recycling, though 75% of residents have some access through drop-off.

The cost side is where the reimbursement schedule bites. Exhibit 5 shows the components of the recycling cost baseline.

Reduction targets: a range proposed, none in statute

The statute names categories, not numbers. Section 115A.1451, subdivision 7, lists six statewide requirements: a recycling rate, a composting rate, a reuse rate, a return rate, a percentage of introduced covered materials that must be waste reduced, and a percentage of postconsumer recycled content, including an overall figure. The commissioner sets them and the deadline for meeting them, after consulting the PRO and the advisory board, and reviews them every five years. MPCA’s presentation states that the law sets no deadline and gives 1 July 2028 as the goal.

The PRO’s targets sit beneath them. Subdivision 5 requires the stewardship plan to propose performance targets by material type, based on the needs assessment, covering reuse, return, recycling and composting rates, waste reduction and recycled content, and showing continuous improvement. Subdivision 6 sets the measurement rules: recycling is measured where material leaves a recycling facility, net of documented contamination; waste reduction by how far material use can fall while the product still arrives without damage or spoilage; and recycled content across producers, with a US market territory allowed where state figures are impractical.

Reduction is defined narrowly. Section 115A.1441, subdivision 40, gives waste reduction the meaning in section 115A.03 but excludes reuse and includes refill. Exhibit 6 sets Minnesota’s proposed ranges beside the reduction rules in the other state laws SPI tracks.

Reuse and reduction are priced, too. The draft assessment attaches investment and savings estimates to the reduction and reuse ranges. Exhibit 7 sets them out.

The ambitious reduction scenario shows USD 359 million of cumulative savings against USD 318 million of capital after ten years, a net USD 41 million, by SPI’s calculation; the less ambitious one is USD 32.4 million short after five. The presentation also attributes 751,000 short tons of CO2e to the five year recycling scenario, and 65,000 and 254,000 short tons to reduction and reuse at five and ten years. MPCA notes that reuse today is concentrated in closed loop food service packaging, with one significant reuse wash facility identified, in Hopkins.

Scenario: what the reimbursement floors could mean

Producer fees in Minnesota are driven by reimbursement, not by a rate card. Section 115A.1454 requires fees to cover the reimbursement in section 115A.1455, the PRO’s operating costs, the MPCA registration fee and a prudent reserve. Section 115A.1455, subdivision 4, sets the floors: no less than 50% of net cost by 1 February 2029, 75% by 1 February 2030 and 90% by 1 February 2031 and each year after. Exhibit 8 applies those floors to the draft assessment’s cost range.

A framework: four routes to market after 2032

Section 115A.1448, subdivision 1(c), sets the hardest date in the Act: after 1 January 2032, no producer may introduce covered materials unless covered services are provided and the material is reusable in a reuse system that meets the statewide rates, refillable in a refill system, or on one of the two lists in section 115A.1453. SPI groups those tests into four routes, plus two fallbacks, in Exhibit 9.

Routes 1 and 2 are where most volume will go. Both lists are due by 1 July 2028 under section 115A.1453, and the commissioner may weigh collection availability, processing and sorting capacity, ISRI specifications, responsible markets, contamination and toxic substances, and projected future conditions. Lists can be amended at any time, and the PRO must work changes into reimbursement rates within a year. Subdivision 8 of section 115A.1451 requires the alternative collection programme to run year round with at least one drop-off site in each county.

The fallbacks are not producer tools. The extension under section 115A.1448, subdivision 1(d), is petitioned by the PRO, not by a producer. An exemption under section 115A.1453, subdivision 6, needs a specific federal or state health and safety requirement, goes to the advisory board for comment, and expires two years after approval, at which point the material becomes covered again.

The PRO: one organisation, until the first plan expires

Registration has two layers. Section 115A.1443, subdivision 3, required producers to appoint a PRO and the PRO to register by 1 January 2025, with a recruitment plan, financial controls and an implementation fee. Subdivision 1 then requires annual registration from 1 July 2026 and each 1 January after, with a list of member producers, their brands and copies of their written agreements. From 1 January 2029 the PRO also pays a registration fee set by the commissioner to cover, but not exceed, MPCA’s costs, with notice of the amount by 1 October 2028.

One PRO by law. The commissioner may not register more than one PRO before the first approved stewardship plan expires. Approved plans run five years, so a second PRO cannot register before the 2030s, by SPI’s reading of sections 115A.1443 and 115A.1451. After that, subdivision 4 allows PROs for a material type or a group of producers, with a coordinating body to merge plans and reports.

Fees cannot buy influence. Section 115A.1454, subdivision 3, bars the use of producer fees for lobbying, and subdivision 2 requires overcollections to go to programme outcomes or lower fees. Reusable materials pay only once, when they first enter the market.

The advisory board: 18 seats and a fixed review window

Membership is set in statute. Section 115A.1444 gives the board 18 members appointed by the commissioner, with initial appointments due by 1 January 2025. The member representing the commissioner does not vote. Members may not be legislators, registered lobbyists or employees of a producer that must join the PRO, and serve four year terms, with nine initial two year terms for staggering and a limit of eight consecutive years. Exhibit 10 shows the seats.

Its duties track the calendar. Section 115A.1446 required a first meeting by 1 March 2025; MPCA’s page lists a full board meeting on 21 February 2025. The board consults on the scope of needs assessments and comments on them in writing, advises on stewardship plans and amendments, and comments in any rulemaking. MPCA’s presentation says the board’s 18 members were consulted three times on the draft assessment. The board’s 2026 meetings ran monthly from January to July, with August cancelled, then 16 September and 22 October; subcommittees covered recycling, composting, and waste reduction and reuse.

It has formal leverage on the plan. Under section 115A.1451, subdivision 2, CAA must give the board its draft plan at least 60 days before filing and address the board’s comments before submission. The board can also recommend that the commissioner require a plan amendment under subdivision 4, and its view is required on exemption requests and on any third party certification requirement.

The plan approval sequence, step by step

Exhibit 11 sets out the sequence from draft plan to first reimbursement, with dates calculated from the statutory periods.

Penalties are high, and rise after approval. Section 115A.1462 sets civil penalties of up to USD 25,000 per day of violation, and for producers and PROs up to USD 50,000 per day for a second violation and USD 100,000 per day for a third within five years after plan approval. SPI’s state guide compares these with other states and is not repeated here.