Euro EPR fees did not move together from 2025 to 2026: the same basket rose 27% in Ireland and 26% in France and fell 6% in Spain

What SPI compared, and why scope matters

This piece is about change. The per-material levels for 2026 are covered in SPI’s earlier Ledger pieces on EPR fees per tonne, glass, aluminium, paper and board and beverage cartons, and are not repeated here. Every value below is in EUR per tonne. Where a scheme prints EUR per kg, SPI multiplies by 1,000; where Citeo prints euro cents per kg, SPI multiplies by 10.

A percentage change is only meaningful inside one scheme’s own line. Exhibit 2 shows the scope each line rests on, which a reader should keep in mind before setting Citeo’s change beside Verpact’s.

Two scope points change how a percentage reads. In Ireland the brand holder share is only part of the bill: the 2026 sheet adds EUR 1.00 for the material manufacturer, EUR 1.00 for the converter and EUR 2.00 for the retailer on every material, unchanged from 2025, so the total recycled paper rate rose from EUR 32.54 to EUR 45.60 per tonne, 40.1% by SPI’s calculation, against 45.8% for the brand holder share (Repak fees 2025 and 2026). In Italy the change is felt on a supplier’s invoice, because CONAI’s contribution is applied at the first transfer of the packaging, not filed by the brand.

2025 to 2026: the material-by-material picture

Exhibit 3 shows the change in six common material lines inside each scheme. Plastic is represented by one mainstream line per scheme; Exhibit 4 shows the plastic detail.

France rose across the board. Every weight rate in Citeo’s 2026 guide is above its 2025 value. Clear PET bottles moved from 53.52 to 70.00 euro cents per kg, or EUR 535.20 to EUR 700.00 per tonne, and the PVC line from EUR 1,605.50 to EUR 2,100.10, both 30.8%. Rigid PS rose a smaller 25.4%, from EUR 642.20 to EUR 805.10, so the 2025 tie between rigid PS and flexible PP at EUR 642.20 is broken: flexible PP now sits EUR 35.00 per tonne higher. Glass rose from EUR 16.40 to EUR 20.10, steel from EUR 53.50 to EUR 64.90 and paper and board from EUR 214.30 to EUR 258.10 (Citeo 2025 tariff; Citeo 2026 guide). Citeo’s 2026 guide gives a tighter regulatory framework that raises the cost of EPR as one context for the new tariff.

Portugal rose on every line SPI could match. SPV’s urban-flow value for paper and board rose from EUR 260.20 to EUR 310.40 per tonne, liquid food cartons from EUR 437.60 to EUR 514.00, plastic from EUR 447.10 to EUR 543.20, steel from EUR 354.70 to EUR 521.90 and wood from EUR 51.50 to EUR 59.90. Other materials more than doubled, from EUR 282.10 to EUR 579.90 (SPV VPV 2025 and 2026). The 2026 table also splits plastic into separate lines, all at EUR 543.20 base, and adds a bonificado column 10% below base.

Ireland rose most on glass and paper. Repak’s brand holder share for recycled glass rose from EUR 7.41 to EUR 19.14 per tonne, paper and cardboard from EUR 28.54 to EUR 41.60 and aluminium outside the deposit scheme from EUR 3.68 to EUR 5.14. Steel slipped from EUR 64.82 to EUR 64.76 and wood from EUR 14.47 to EUR 14.18 (Repak fees 2025 and 2026). Because the starting rates are low, the large percentages are small sums per tonne in all but plastic and composites.

Spain fell on most lines. Ecoembes cut 11 of the 13 household lines SPI compared for 2026. Drinks cans in steel fell from EUR 218 to EUR 197 per tonne and in aluminium from EUR 60 to EUR 40, carton for drinks and food (non-SUP) from EUR 553 to EUR 533, and non-SUP paper and board from EUR 117 to EUR 115. Wood and cork rose from EUR 22 to EUR 30, and the glass weight part stayed at EUR 35.15 (Ecoembes Precios 2025 and 2026).

Austria and the Netherlands moved selectively. ARA raised household paper by 9.5%, glass 5.9%, plastic 5.1%, beverage cartons 5.2% and other composites 5.6%, and held ferrous metal, aluminium, ceramics, wood, textile fibres, biodegradables and every commercial line (ARA tariff sheet 2026). Verpact held glass, paper, plastic, other metals and wood, and raised only aluminium, from EUR 300 to EUR 340, and drinks cartons, from EUR 880 to EUR 920 per tonne (Verpact Tarieven).

Italy and Luxembourg rebalanced. CONAI cut paper and the CPL band for liquid packaging board, raised glass from EUR 35 to EUR 40 on 1 January 2026, and raised every plastic band on 1 October 2026. Valorlux cut paper, beverage cartons, PE films, rigid PP and rigid PS, and raised glass, steel, HDPE and every PET bottle line (Valorlux detailed tables 2025 and 2026).

Plastic: the line with the widest spread of change

Plastic carries the largest euro amounts in every scheme, and the 2025 to 2026 changes ran in both directions. Exhibit 4 picks the plastic lines that moved most, or that show a scheme’s design choice.

Three patterns stand out. First, the recyclability gap widened where schemes chose to widen it. Repak’s gap between recycled rigid and non-recycled plastic grew from EUR 304.04 to EUR 450.52 per tonne by SPI’s calculation, and Valorlux’s gap between colourless PET (PV06, up 27.6% to EUR 249.80) and opaque PET (PV09, up 58.9% to EUR 487.10) grew from EUR 110.90 to EUR 237.30.

Second, Spain’s cuts came mostly from one design change. In 2025 an SUP line paid EUR 0.101 per kg more than its non-SUP twin, for example EUR 0.414 against EUR 0.313 for HDPE rigid; in 2026 the gap is EUR 0.011 (Ecoembes Precios 2025 and 2026). SUP paper with plastic content fell from EUR 218 to EUR 126 per tonne for the same reason.

Third, Italy’s plastic rises arrived late in the year. CONAI’s value table shows A1.1 at EUR 40, B1.1 at EUR 219 and C at EUR 790 per tonne in its 1 January and 1 July 2026 columns, and EUR 51, EUR 260 and EUR 922 from 1 October 2026 (CONAI value table). A brand on a January to December budget therefore paid the 2025 plastic level for nine months of 2026.

The largest moves, up and down

Exhibit 5 ranks the largest single-line changes from 2025 to 2026 across the nine schemes. All are in euros, but each percentage is inside its own scheme’s line.

The other materials in brief: what changed, not what they cost

SPI’s material pieces set out the 2026 level of each line; here is only the direction of change, so a reader can see which way each material is heading.

Glass. Glass rose in five of the seven schemes with both years matched: by 158.3% at Repak, 22.6% at Citeo, 14.7% at Valorlux, 14.3% at CONAI and 5.9% at ARA, and held at Verpact and in Spain’s weight part. For 2027 it rises again at Valorlux (46.8%), CONAI (20.0%) and in Spain (7.0%), and holds at ARA, Fost Plus and Verpact. The levels are in the glass piece.

Paper and board. Paper split the schemes most clearly: up 45.8% at Repak, 20.4% at Citeo, 19.3% at SPV and 9.5% at ARA, but down 30.8% at CONAI, 3.2% at Valorlux and 1.7% at Ecoembes, and flat at Verpact. Its 2027 steps are small where published, from 0.0% to 3.9%. The paper and board piece covers the composite rules that matter more than the base rate.

Aluminium. Aluminium rose 39.7% at Repak, 30.5% at Citeo, 13.3% at Verpact and 4.1% at Valorlux, held at ARA and CONAI, and fell 33.3% on Spanish drinks cans. For 2027 it rises 11.8% at Verpact and 7.3% at Valorlux, and Fost Plus moves its two aluminium lines in opposite directions, -18.7% for 50 micron and over and 7.7% for thinner material. The aluminium piece has the deposit context.

Beverage cartons. Cartons rose 23.1% at Citeo, 17.5% at SPV, 5.2% at ARA and 4.5% at Verpact, and fell 14.8% at CONAI (the CPL band), 3.6% at Ecoembes and 3.1% at Valorlux. For 2027 they are one of the clearest risers: 36.7% at Valorlux and 20.7% at Verpact, with Fost Plus and ARA flat. The carton piece sets out the lines.

Steel. Steel is the quiet material that moves most in 2027. It rose 47.1% at SPV, 46.1% at Valorlux and 21.3% at Citeo for 2026, and now rises 77.6% at Fost Plus and 51.3% at Valorlux. Because steel rates start low in most schemes, these are large percentages on small sums, except in Belgium, where the 2027 rate reaches EUR 331 per tonne.

What drives the changes

The schemes publish their reasons in different detail, but three forces recur.

Collection and sorting cost. Fost Plus names rising collection and sorting costs and contract renewals as the main influence on its 2026 rates (Fost Plus, 24 September 2025), and its rates page says rates are adapted each year to the costs it incurs. Citeo’s 2026 guide points to a tighter regulatory framework that raises the cost of EPR.

Material value and stream quality. CONAI cut its paper base after recovered paper sold better than expected, and raised plastic to keep the supply chains funded (SPI Italy fee-market note; CONAI, 25 May 2026). Verpact links the aluminium rise to a smaller, lower-quality stream as cans leave the aluminium flow (Verpact, 22 September 2025). In SPI’s reading, deposit systems in the Netherlands and Ireland work the same way: they remove the most valuable tonnes from the scheme’s stream, and the cost of what remains is spread over fewer tonnes.

Modulation design. Where a scheme chooses to widen the gap between well and poorly recyclable lines, the change shows up as a split. Repak widened the recycled against non-recycled plastic gap by EUR 146.48 per tonne for 2026, and Valorlux more than doubled its colourless against opaque PET gap. Ecoembes went the other way on SUP, cutting a surcharge of EUR 0.101 per kg to EUR 0.011.

2026 to 2027: what has been published

Exhibit 6 shows the 2026 to 2027 change in the same six lines for every scheme with 2027 values published in its own table by 28 October 2026.

Exhibit 7 lists the 2027 lines that move most, with their values.

Belgium. Fost Plus’s rates page sets 2026 and 2027 side by side. Glass at EUR 105.20, paper-cardboard at EUR 150.30, beverage cartons at EUR 808 and colourless PET bottles at EUR 360.40 per tonne are unchanged, as is the EUR 4,419 rate for non-valorised and obstructive packaging. The page gives a general basis rather than line-by-line reasons.

Luxembourg. Valorlux’s 2027 table raises all 18 household lines that carry a value in each of the three years; PV00 for reusable packaging stays at zero, and SPI has not matched the PET tray line (PV14d) to its year columns. Even paper and board, cut for 2026, rises 3.9% to EUR 40.40. The industrial lines PV16 to PV19 stay at EUR 14.50 and EUR 39.50 per tonne.

The Netherlands. Verpact’s table holds glass, paper, both plastic lines, other metals and wood at their 2025 rates for a third year. Aluminium rises for a second year and drinks cartons by a fifth, and plastic drinks bottles outside the deposit system get their own EUR 2,600 per tonne line.

Spain. The 2027 table keeps the SUP gap at EUR 0.011 per kg and moves most lines by -1.1% to 3.5%; the glass weight part rises 7.0% to EUR 37.61 per tonne, plus a per-unit part of EUR 0.00533 (Ecoembes Precios 2027).

Italy, France, Portugal and Ireland are still open. CONAI has published 2027 values only for glass and wood, both announced on 2 July 2026. SPI has not yet confirmed Citeo’s 2027 tariff against Citeo’s own guide, has found no SPV table for 2027, and has not yet confirmed the rates in Repak’s 2027 Regular Membership Rates sheet (QF 628).

A framework: three ways schemes changed their rates

Exhibit 8 sorts the nine schemes by how they moved from 2025 to 2026 and what they have published for 2027. It is drawn from Exhibits 3 and 6.

Broad risers. France, Portugal and Ireland raised almost every material by double digits, and all three are open for 2027. Their 2025 to 2026 rises share a context the schemes themselves describe: higher collection and sorting costs and, in Ireland, a deposit scheme that has taken PET bottles and cans out of Repak’s stream (SPI Ireland fee-market note). For a buyer, the right stance is a range, not a point.

Rebalancers. Spain, Italy and Luxembourg moved materials in opposite directions in 2026, and Belgium does so in 2027, with steel up 77.6% and aluminium of 50 micron and over down 18.7%; SPI has not yet matched Fost Plus’s 2025 table. The risk is less the size of the bill than its mix: a brand selling mostly paper into Italy saw its fee fall, while one selling plastic saw it rise from October 2026. Luxembourg turns from a rebalancer in 2026 into the steepest riser of the five full 2027 tables.

Steady setters. Austria and the Netherlands change few lines, but by noticeable amounts when they do: Dutch drinks cartons rise by a fifth in 2027 and aluminium rises for a second year, while ARA holds every line. The lever is knowing which of your packs sit on the lines that move.

The basket, priced in euros

Exhibit 9 prices the SPI basket in each scheme for each year with a published table: 40 tonnes of paper and board, 25 of glass, 20 of plastic, 5 of aluminium, 5 of steel and 5 of cartons. The lines are those in the note to Exhibit 1. The euro totals can be read across schemes only with the scope caveats in Exhibit 2; the changes within a row are the safer comparison.

SPI calculation: in Luxembourg, 2027 adds 40 t x EUR 1.50 for paper, 25 t x EUR 9.50 for glass, 20 t x EUR 71.50 for HDPE, 5 t x EUR 1.10 for aluminium, 5 t x EUR 20.30 for steel and 5 t x EUR 103.00 for cartons, a total of EUR 2,349.50. In Belgium, steel alone adds 5 t x EUR 144.60 = EUR 723.00 of the EUR 1,445.00 rise, and PE hard packaging adds 20 t x EUR 38.40 = EUR 768.00, offset by EUR 46.00 less on aluminium.

The basket shows something Exhibit 3 hides. Spain’s 2026 cut is mostly steel cans and HDPE: 5 t x EUR 21 and 20 t x EUR 28 account for EUR 665.00 of the EUR 945.00 fall. Italy’s rise is mostly plastic: 20 t x EUR 41 = EUR 820.00 of EUR 945.00. A brand whose mix differs from the basket will see a different change, which is the point of building the budget line by line.

Scenarios: the four schemes still open for 2027

For France, Portugal, Ireland and most of Italy, a 2027 budget has to be built before the tables are confirmed. Exhibit 10 gives three cases on the 2026 basket. They are SPI assumptions, not forecasts.

SPI calculation: France’s base case is EUR 30,109.50 x 1.131 = EUR 34,055.90 and its high case EUR 30,109.50 x 1.262 = EUR 38,002.30. Italy’s low case adds 25 t x EUR 8 = EUR 200.00 for glass; its high case adds 20 t x EUR 260 x 18.7% = EUR 972.40 for plastic on top.

Two caveats apply. The high cases assume the 2026 drivers repeat, which no scheme has said. And the published 2027 tables show the opposite pattern elsewhere: ARA, which rose 5.4% in 2026, holds flat, and Ecoembes, which fell, moves less than 1%. SPI analysis: for a finance team the useful output is the gap between low and high, EUR 7,892.80 per 100 tonnes in France and EUR 6,808.10 in Portugal, which is the size of the contingency to carry until the tables appear.

The calendar: not every change lands on 1 January

Most schemes publish one rate per calendar year. Italy does not, and two other schemes changed lines mid-year. Exhibit 11 lists the dates on which the changes in this piece took effect.