Five euro schemes price a beverage carton close to rigid plastic, not paper, and two of them raise the carton line by a fifth or more in 2027

How each scheme classes a carton

Every scheme here gives cartons their own line rather than folding them into paper or into a general composite code (Exhibit 2). The tests differ, and they decide whether a given pack lands on the carton line at all.

Austria. ARA’s sheet places beverage cartons in the composite family: code 1.04.2 for beverage cartons and 1.04.3 for other composite materials, both household. ARA’s information sheet on Getränkeverbundkartons, dated 3 February 2022, ties the term to § 3 Z 25 of the Verpackungsverordnung 2014 and states that a closure counts as part of the carton. The sheet has no commercial carton line; the only commercial composite code is 2.07.0, other composite materials, at EUR 0.100 per kg in 2026 and 2027. SPI has not yet confirmed which code ARA applies to cartons that reach commercial users.

Belgium. Fost Plus code 008 covers any laminated board element, with or without a cap, made of board, aluminium and plastic or of board and plastic, with at least 50% paper fibre by weight excluding inks, adhesives and glues. The obstructive category D015, for board coated with plastic on all sides, expressly excludes beverage cartons. A paper-based composite outside code 008 with less than 85% fibre, and not assessed as recyclable under the CEPI protocol, falls into code 012 at EUR 4.4190 per kg (Fost Plus Green Dot rates 2026).

Luxembourg. Valorlux lists PV03 Getränkekartons in its detailed declaration table, next to PV02 paper and board of at least 85% fibre. Neither the 2026 nor the 2027 table defines the line or mentions caps.

The Netherlands. Verpact’s policy for 2026, version 3.3 effective 1 January 2026, sets a separate tariff for the materials used in drinks cartons. Section 4.1.2 adds that the rate also applies to any cap and spout. On its tariff page, Verpact asks declarants to enter the weight of each material in the carton, because the statutory definition changed on 1 July 2023.

Portugal. SPV’s 2026 table names the line ECAL, Embalagens de Cartão para Alimentos Líquidos, in both the urban and non-urban flow, with a base and a reduced (bonificado) value. The table does not define the line further.

The 2026 and 2027 carton rates

Exhibit 3 sets out each scheme’s carton line over three years, with the change inside each scheme.

ARA’s 2026 sheet, version of 29 September 2025, raised household cartons from EUR 0.970 to EUR 1.020 per kg, and other composites from EUR 1.080 to EUR 1.140. Its 2027 sheet, version of 28 September 2026, prints both columns and keeps every carton and composite rate. The sheets give no reason for the 2026 rise.

Fost Plus’s rates page shows beverage cartons at EUR 0.8080 per kg in both 2026 and 2027, alongside glass, paper and board, colourless PET bottles and the non-recyclable rate, which are also unchanged. Fost Plus says its rates are adapted each year to the costs of collecting, sorting and recycling each material, net of material revenue (Packaging EPR rates page). SPI has not yet confirmed the 2025 carton rate against Fost Plus’s own 2025 table, so no 2025 change is shown.

Valorlux cut PV03 slightly for 2026, from EUR 0.2900 to EUR 0.2810 per kg, then raised it to EUR 0.3840 for 2027 in the table approved at its October 2026 general assembly. That is the largest carton step in the five schemes. Neither table gives a reason.

Verpact moved from EUR 0.880 in 2025 to EUR 0.920 in 2026 and EUR 1.110 in 2027. Its tariff page states that the 2027 rise is needed to improve sorting and recycling further and to meet legal targets. Its provisional 2025 results put the rise in chain costs for cartons at EUR 10 million, from EUR 36 million in 2024 to EUR 46 million, mainly from larger processed volumes and higher recycler charges (Verpact, Voorlopige resultaten 2025).

SPV raised the urban ECAL value from EUR 0.4376 per kg in the updated 2025 table to EUR 0.5140 in 2026, a rise of 17.5%. The December 2025 and June 2026 files of the 2026 table give the same ECAL values. In the non-urban flow the 2025 table printed EUR 0.0000 for ECAL, and 2026 sets EUR 0.0068.

Priced like plastic, not like paper

The clearest pattern appears when the carton rate is set against two other lines in the same table: paper and board, and rigid plastic. Ratios inside one scheme carry no currency effect, and all five schemes are in euro in any case. The EPR fees per tonne piece prices a full mixed basket through the same tables.

The spread against paper is wide because the paper lines themselves differ so much. Verpact charges paper and board EUR 0.017 per kg, so even a moderate carton rate is 54 times paper. SPV’s paper line is EUR 0.3104, the highest of the five, so its carton line is only 1.66 times paper. The spread against rigid plastic is narrow: in every scheme the carton costs between three quarters of and slightly more than the rigid plastic line.

Against the cheapest plastic, the picture holds. Fost Plus’s carton rate is 2.24 times its clear PET bottle line (EUR 0.3604), and Valorlux’s is 1.12 times its PV06 clear PET line (EUR 0.2498). In both Benelux schemes the carton therefore pays more than a clear PET bottle per kg, although in both countries the PET bottle may sit in a different stream.

The 2027 tables tighten the band in two places. On Verpact’s 2027 rates the carton is 91.0% of rigid plastic, up from 75.4%, because cartons rise and plastic holds. On Valorlux’s 2027 rates PV03 at EUR 0.3840 is 101.8% of PV10 HDPE at EUR 0.3773 and 9.5 times PV02 paper at EUR 0.0404.

Modulation and add-ons around the carton line

None of the five schemes modulates the carton rate by design inside the carton line in the way some modulate plastic. What they do have are discounts, flows and separate charges that change the effective rate (Exhibit 6).

Portugal’s discount. SPV’s 2026 table prints a reduced ECAL value of EUR 0.4626 per kg in the urban flow and EUR 0.0061 in the non-urban flow. The table says the bonificado value applies when packaging meets all the ecomodulation criteria set for that material and is 10% below the base. The criteria themselves are not in the table, and SPI has not yet confirmed the ECAL criteria for 2026.

Portugal’s flows. The non-urban ECAL value of EUR 0.0068 per kg is 76 times lower than the urban value. A carton sold to a hotel or catering business rather than a household may fall in the non-urban flow, and the flow is set by where the packaging becomes waste, so declaring the right flow matters more than any design change.

Belgium’s litter levy. Since 2026, producers of single-use packaging that often ends up as litter pay a levy that Belgium’s three Regions introduced in response to the SUP Directive. Fost Plus collects it, charges it separately from the Green Dot fee and allocates it by each packaging type’s share in litter counts, with a total of EUR 102 million a year. Its 2026 table sets beverage cartons at EUR 0.1516 per kg for both food and beverage packaging. Fost Plus’s scope list does not name cartons, so brands should check its scope guide. Contributions under EUR 500 are exempt. Fost Plus disputes the amount and has challenged the cooperation agreement before the Constitutional Court (Fost Plus litter levy page).

The Dutch SUP component. Verpact’s policy defines SUP packaging as single-use packaging made wholly or partly of plastic, including composite drinks packaging of up to 3 litres with caps and lids, and lists a SUP component for drinks packaging of EUR 2.10 per 1,000 items in 2026. Its carton tariff is printed excluding that component. The policy does not say whether drinks cartons pay it, so SPI has not yet confirmed it applies to cartons.

What gets recycled, and what gets reported

A carton-specific recycling result exists for two of the five countries (Exhibit 7). In the other three, the result is either allocated to other materials or SPI has not yet confirmed a figure from an official or scheme report.

The Netherlands. Verpact reports a 2024 carton recycling rate of 46%, nearly double the 24% of 2023, against a statutory target of 37% for 2024 that rises step by step to 55% in 2030. Its 2024 infographic counts 49 thousand tonnes on the market and 23 thousand tonnes recycled, with 40% more carton weight delivered for recycling than in 2023. A 2022 study by Wageningen Food & Biobased Research estimated the 2020 Dutch rate at 24% to 36%, which shows how far the chain has moved.

Belgium. Fost Plus’s release of 21 December 2023 gives drinks carton recycling rates of 58% in 2019 and 2020, 71% in 2021 and 70% in 2022, and notes that 2019 is an estimate. Fost Plus’s 2024 activity report shows recycling rates by category in a chart without labelled values for cartons, and SPI has not yet confirmed a carton figure for 2023 to 2025.

Luxembourg. Valorlux’s 2025 factsheet counts 1,175.22 tonnes of cartons at the exit of the sorting centre but shows a material rate of 0.00% for them, because it reports their weight as 75% paper and board, 5% aluminium and 20% PE film. Its household packaging recycling rate for 2025 is 81.13%, against a legal minimum of 65%.

Portugal. The SIGRE report for 2023 by the Agência Portuguesa do Ambiente (APA), version 1.0 of July 2024, gives 2023 data with ECAL allocated 75% to paper, 20% to plastic and 5% to aluminium. It reports no separate ECAL rate. The SIGRE recycling rate across materials was 56.0%, with paper and board at 72.9% and plastic at 51.1%.

A framework: two questions that place each scheme

SPI places the five schemes on two questions taken from Exhibits 6 and 7 (Exhibit 8). The first asks whether the fee is the carton line alone or the carton line plus a separate charge or flow rule that changes the effective rate. The second asks whether the country reports a carton-specific recycling result or folds cartons into other materials.

Position A, target-linked. In the Netherlands the carton rate is explained by the scheme in terms of reaching legal targets, and the target path is public. Fillers can expect the rate to follow the recycling gap, so the 2030 step to 55% is the main forward signal.

Position B, layered. In Belgium the Green Dot line is held for 2027, but the litter levy is reset each year from litter counts and is under legal challenge. The cost lever is less the carton design than whether a SKU is in the levy’s scope.

Position C, flow-based. In Portugal the flow decision dwarfs everything else: an urban carton costs 76 times a non-urban one. The 10% discount is the only design-linked lever in the five tables.

Position D, single line. In Luxembourg and Austria the bill is weight times one rate. Austria’s rate is the highest of the five but stable for 2027; Luxembourg’s is the lowest but rises the most.

Worked example: one million 1-litre cartons

SPI priced 1 million 1-litre cartons through each scheme (Exhibit 9). The weight is 28 g per carton, an SPI assumption for a plain 1-litre carton with a cap; the Austria piece used 30 g for a juice carton, and real weights vary by format and closure. The material split follows the average Dutch market composition that Wageningen Food & Biobased Research measured for 2020: about 74.6% wood fibre, 23.3% plastic and 2.1% aluminium (report 2275, April 2022). At 28 g that is about 20.9 g of fibre, 6.5 g of plastic and 0.6 g of aluminium per carton, which explains why schemes treat cartons as composite packaging.

Method. 1,000,000 cartons x 28 g = 28,000 kg. Each fee is 28,000 kg times the scheme’s rate. Austria: 28,000 x 1.020 = EUR 28,560.00. The Netherlands: 28,000 x 0.920 = EUR 25,760.00, and 28,000 x 1.110 = EUR 31,080.00 in 2027. Belgium: 28,000 x 0.808 = EUR 22,624.00, and with the levy 28,000 x 0.9596 = EUR 26,868.80. Portugal: 28,000 x 0.514 = EUR 14,392.00, or EUR 12,952.80 at the bonificado value, and EUR 190.40 if the same cartons were declared in the non-urban flow. Luxembourg: 28,000 x 0.281 = EUR 7,868.00, and 28,000 x 0.384 = EUR 10,752.00 in 2027.

Where fee bases differ. Austria’s figure assumes household packaging under code 1.04.2. The Dutch figure includes the cap at the carton rate, as Verpact’s policy requires; if Verpact applied its SUP component to cartons, 1 million items would add EUR 2,100.00 in 2026, taking the bill to EUR 27,860.00. Verpact’s 50,000 kg notification threshold works on a producer’s whole packaging volume, and the example assumes a producer above it. Belgium’s levy applies only to cartons in its scope. Portugal’s figure assumes household sale.

The 2027 column changes the order in the middle of the table. On published 2027 rates the Netherlands, at EUR 31,080, passes Austria, at EUR 28,560, and Luxembourg’s bill rises by EUR 2,884. In Austria and Belgium the Green Dot cost of the same 1 million cartons is flat.

Scenarios: weight and 2027

The weight of a carton is the one input a brand controls directly, so SPI ran a low, base and high case of 25 g, 28 g and 31 g, each an SPI assumption, on 2026 and published 2027 rates (Exhibit 10).

Because every scheme charges a flat rate per kg on cartons, the fee moves in proportion to weight: cutting 3 g from 28 g saves 10.7% everywhere. In the Netherlands, though, a 25 g carton on 2027 rates (EUR 27,750) still costs more than a 28 g carton on 2026 rates (EUR 25,760), and in Luxembourg a 25 g carton in 2027 (EUR 9,600) costs more than a 31 g carton in 2026 (EUR 8,711). Lightweighting alone does not offset the 2027 steps in those two markets.

SPI calculation: in Belgium, the litter levy for a base-case carton adds EUR 4,244.80 per million in 2026, more than the EUR 2,424 a 3 g weight cut would save on the Green Dot line. In Portugal, meeting every bonificado criterion saves EUR 1,439.20 per million, close to the EUR 1,542 saving from a 3 g weight cut.

The EU layer: PPWR grades and the SUP Directive

Two EU instruments shape the carton line from above: the Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation (PPWR), Regulation (EU) 2025/40, and the Single-Use Plastics (SUP) Directive, Directive (EU) 2019/904 (Exhibit 11). The SPI Regulation Tracker holds both as rule notes, PR-EU-010 for recyclability and PR-EU-015 for tethered caps.

Recyclability grades. The PPWR expresses recyclability in performance grades A, B and C, and packaging below grade C is treated as technically non-recyclable, with the floor rising to grade B from 1 January 2038 (recital 28, via PR-EU-010). Commission Notice C/2026/3084 of 10 June 2026 reads Article 6(1) as applying from 12 August 2026. It says the design-for-recycling test in Article 6(2)(a) applies from 1 January 2030 or 24 months after the Article 6(4) delegated act, which the Commission expects by 1 January 2028, if that is later. The same grades are meant to modulate producer fees under harmonised criteria (recital 35, via PR-EU-010). Fost Plus and Valipac’s presentation of 20 March 2026 summarises the thresholds as A above 95%, B above 80% and C above 70%, and from 2035 a recycled-at-scale test can downgrade a grade.

For cartons, SPI has not yet confirmed what grade a standard carton will receive, because the criteria acts are not yet adopted. The grade will depend on how much of the carton the recycling process recovers: with about 75% fibre and the rest polyethylene and aluminium in the Dutch average (WUR 2022), whether the polymer and aluminium fraction counts as recycled will matter as much as fibre yield.

Composite packaging and the format bans. Section 16 of the Notice explains the composite packaging definition, and section 17 states that composite packaging with 5% or more plastic is covered by the Annex V format bans from 1 January 2030, while packaging with no more than 5% plastic is not. A carton with about 23% plastic is above that line. SPI analysis: the Annex V point most likely to reach cartons is point 3, single-use plastic packaging for foods and beverages filled and consumed within hospitality premises, as Notice section 16 describes it; brands supplying cartons to hotels, restaurants and cafés for drinks served on site should check that point with counsel before 2030.

Tethered caps. Article 6(1) of the SUP Directive allows beverage containers of up to 3 litres with plastic caps or lids on the market only if the caps and lids stay attached during use, and Article 17 set the date at 3 July 2024. The Commission’s 2021 guidelines state that beverage cartons are composite beverage packaging expressly in the scope of Parts C, E and G, and list caps on beverage cartons as included (PR-EU-015). EN 17665:2022+A1:2023 gives a presumption of conformity. Because Austria’s ARA counts a closure as part of the carton and Verpact charges the cap and spout at the carton rate, a heavier tethered cap adds directly to the carton fee in those two schemes.

Litter costs. Part E of the SUP Directive brings beverage containers of up to 3 litres into the EPR duty to cover awareness, public collection and litter clean-up costs under Article 8. Belgium’s litter levy on cartons is a national application of that duty. SPI has not yet confirmed a separate SUP litter charge on cartons in Austria, Luxembourg or Portugal.

What does not apply. Part F of the SUP Directive, which carries the 25% and 30% recycled plastic floors and the separate collection target, covers beverage bottles and excludes composite beverage packaging, according to the 2021 guidelines. The PPWR deposit duty in Article 50 covers single-use plastic bottles and metal containers, and Notice section 28 does not list cartons. In line with this, cartons stayed with ARA in Austria and with SPV in Portugal when those countries started deposit systems for bottles and cans, as the Austria piece sets out for Austria’s Pfandverordnung.