Four of five food giants have restated, moved or paused a packaging target since 2020, and no two measure virgin plastic from the same year

Five portfolios, three published plastic tonnages

A pledge is only as large as the packaging it covers, so the first comparison is tonnage. Exhibit 2 sets out what each company reports in its latest own document, in its own units and year.

The trends inside each company tell a sharper story than the levels. Nestlé’s plastic packaging fell from 1.7 million tonnes in 2018 to 0.86 million in 2025 (Ask Nestlé, consulted 20 October 2026). SPI calculation: that is a 49.4% fall in plastic tonnage, while virgin plastic fell 28.0% over the same years, so recycled plastic and lower volumes both play a part. Danone reports plastic packaging use down 10.1% and virgin fossil-based plastic down 17.7% between 2019 and 2025 (2025 URD, page 23). Kraft Heinz’s plastic packaging fell from 293,000 tonnes in 2022 to 222,000 in 2024, a 24.2% fall in two years, and total packaging from 1,207,000 to 1,067,000 tonnes (2025 ESG Report, page 11).

Material mix shapes which rules matter. Kraft Heinz reports 349,000 tonnes of renewable materials for primary products in 2024 against 718,000 tonnes of non-renewable ones, so SPI calculates that about a third of its packaging weight is renewable. General Mills describes its packaging as mainly fibre without a percentage, and its fiscal 2026 Form 10-K, filed on 1 July 2026, lists carton board, corrugated, plastic and metal among the materials it buys in substantial quantities (SPI Buyers Database). Mondelēz reports 908,200 tonnes of packaging for calendar 2025, after moving that metric to calendar-year reporting (Non-Financial Datasheet, footnote 9).

Virgin plastic: four goals, four baselines

Virgin plastic reduction is the one metric four of the five share, and it is the one most often misread. Each goal is a percentage cut against a different year, and Nestlé’s new goal also uses a narrower scope (Exhibit 3).

Read the table one row at a time. Nestlé’s 28.0% cut is against its full 2018 baseline, which still included Nestlé Waters; its 2030 aim of 12% to 17% is against an adjusted 2018 baseline of 611 kilotonnes that excludes Nestlé Waters and Premium Beverages, and the strategy says that target “is subject to change once the divestment is concluded” (Packaging Sustainability Strategy, page 10). Nestlé has not published progress against the adjusted baseline. SPI calculation: the aim implies 2030 virgin plastic of about 507 to 538 kilotonnes for the businesses Nestlé keeps.

Danone’s 17% reduction between 2019 and 2025 already equals its 17% goal for 2030, and its packaging page gives the baseline as “aligned with the Ellen MacArthur Global Commitment”. The goal stays open to 2030, so the level has to hold as volumes change. Mondelēz reports an 11.5% cut in overall virgin plastic against 2020 for 2025, beating its 5% goal for that year, and 8.4% on rigid plastic against a 25% goal for 2030 (Goals and progress, consulted 20 October 2026). Its datasheet marks earlier years where virgin rigid plastic rose against 2020 with a plus sign.

Kraft Heinz reports a 2% cut against 2021 by 2024, against 20% by 2030 (2025 ESG Report, page 5). Its largest named project, moving Kraft Mayo, Miracle Whip and NotMayo bottles to 100% recycled PET, is expected to remove about 14 million pounds of virgin plastic (page 7). SPI calculation: about 6,350 tonnes, or 2.9% of its 222,000-tonne plastic footprint in 2024.

Targets and status, company by company

Exhibit 4 brings every current packaging target of the five companies together with the latest figure each reports, its date and its source. Status is the company’s own where it gives one; otherwise it is the status recorded in the SPI Packaging Buyers Database, which holds 179 targets from 42 companies.

The definitions behind the recyclability rows are not the same. Nestlé counts packaging that meets reusable, recyclable or compostable criteria, and defines a recyclable component by the Ellen MacArthur Foundation test of a 30% recycling rate in regions covering more than 400 million people (Ask Nestlé). Danone measures design for recycling against the PPWR definition. Kraft Heinz’s measure includes materials labelled recyclable, widely recyclable or “check locally”, plus packaging collected through programmes such as TerraCycle (2025 ESG Report, page 11). General Mills measures by weight across all brands.

What changed since 2020, and when

Every company in this group except General Mills has changed the shape of a packaging pledge since 2020. Exhibit 5 puts the changes on one line; Exhibit 6 sets the earlier and current wording side by side.

The Danone sequence shows why dates matter. Its October 2018 release set 100% recyclable, reusable or compostable packaging by 2025 and a 50% average of recycled PET in water and other beverage bottles by 2025. In its answers to shareholders of 25 April 2024 the recyclability goal read 2030, and the virgin plastic goal read 30% less virgin packaging derived from fossil resources by 2030 against 2020, with half by 2040. The same goals appear in its answers of 24 April 2025. The 5 March 2026 release then says Danone is updating its targets, and the packaging page now shows 17% against 2019 and 95% designed for recycling by 2030. SPI has not yet confirmed the date on which the recyclability deadline first moved from 2025 to 2030.

Mondelēz’s changes came in two steps. Its 2023 report release of 19 September 2024 updated the recyclability goal to about 98% or more by 2025, citing “various strategic and operational factors” including acquisitions, growth and evolving regulation (CSRwire, 19 September 2024). Its goals page now gives about 98% or more by 2030, 25% less rigid virgin plastic by 2030 and 5% recycled plastic content by 2030, while the 5% overall virgin plastic goal keeps its 2025 date and is beaten.

Reuse and refill: one large bet, four small ones

Reuse is where the five companies differ most, and where the PPWR adds its own targets. From 1 January 2030, operators using transport packaging must ensure at least 40% of it is reusable within a re-use system, grouped packaging carries a 10% target, and final distributors of beverages face 10% (PR-EU-006). Exhibit 7 shows what each company reports.

Danone’s water figures come from two statements a year apart: “about 50% of volumes” sold in reusable packaging in 2024 (answers of 24 April 2025) and “over 45%” in the 5 March 2026 release. SPI has not yet confirmed whether the two use the same scope, so no trend is drawn. Nestlé’s strategy commits to “support government policies that would create the conditions to scale reuse and refill systems” and the Ask Nestlé page says reuse models are being tested and scaled where practical.

Where the rules bite: EPR fees and PPWR

Regulatory exposure follows where each company sells. Exhibit 8 sets out the regional split each company reports, in its own currency; shares are within each company, so no currency is compared.

In Europe the PPWR has applied since 12 August 2026 as a directly applicable regulation (PR-EU-001). All packaging placed on the market must be recyclable, with the design-for-recycling test from 1 January 2030 or 24 months after the delegated acts, whichever is later (PR-EU-010). Recycled-content minimums start in 2030 (PR-EU-004), the Annex V format restrictions apply from 1 January 2030 (PR-EU-008), and food-contact packs face PFAS limits (PR-EU-002). The PPWR piece covers the detail.

In North America the cost is fees. Oregon’s programme lets the producer responsibility organisation charge fees from 1 July 2025 (PR-US-002), Colorado’s dues apply from January 2026 (PR-US-003), and California’s SB 54 regulations took effect on 1 May 2026, with producers given until 1 June 2026 to choose a compliance path (PR-US-004). Mondelēz is a founding member of Circular Action Alliance and says it is “supporting the implementation of Extended Producer Responsibility in Colorado, Oregon, California” (positions page). Kraft Heinz’s EPR position of 24 April 2024 supports programmes with “a shared responsibility funding model”. The EPR fees piece prices those schedules per tonne.

None of the five publishes a group total for EPR fees paid. Danone says it pays EPR fees “in markets where EPR is legislated”, and Nestlé’s 2025 report says it wants to “strengthen Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) systems” (Creating Shared Value 2025, page 32). SPI has not yet confirmed any company’s EPR fee bill.

An exposure framework: plastic share against regulatory centre of gravity

Put the plastic share of packaging (Exhibit 1) against the region that carries more of each company’s sales (Exhibit 8), and the five fall into a simple 2×2. SPI uses two tests: plastic at one third or more of packaging weight, and Europe sales above or below North America sales. Each quadrant tells a supplier which rules will drive the customer’s next specification (Exhibit 9).

Quadrant A, Danone. With half its packaging weight in plastic and more sales in Europe than North America, Danone meets the PPWR on its heaviest material. Its choice to measure design for recycling against the PPWR definition and its reported 87% for 2025 make the EU test the company’s own yardstick. Its water bottles also sit under the tethered caps and bottle recycled-content rules of the Single-Use Plastics Directive (PR-EU-015, PR-EU-016) and the Polish deposit system, which charges PLN 0.50 on plastic bottles up to 3 litres (PR-PL-001).

Quadrant B, Mondelēz. Mondelēz cannot be placed on plastic intensity from its own published figures, but 39.0% of its 2025 net revenue came from Europe, against 27.7% from North America. Its 96% recyclable figure and 3.7% recycled plastic content set the gap that PPWR recycled-content rules and the UK Plastic Packaging Tax act on, and its Cadbury mass balance wrappers sit on the UK rule change that recognises chemically recycled plastic allocated by certified mass balance (PR-GB-001).

Quadrant D, Nestlé, Kraft Heinz and General Mills. All three sell more in North America than Europe and carry plastic at a fifth to a quarter of packaging weight, or a fibre-led mix at General Mills. For them the near-term cost is US state fees on every covered material, including the cartons and corrugated that dominate General Mills’ weight. Nestlé’s Europe exposure is larger than its zone figure suggests, because Nespresso’s CHF 6,481 million of 2025 sales is reported outside the zones; SPI has not yet confirmed its regional split.

Scenarios: what the open targets and the rules imply

SPI ran three sets of numbers, each in one unit or currency, using only published inputs. The first asks where each open virgin plastic or recyclability goal lands in 2030 at three paces (Exhibit 11).

SPI calculation: Mondelēz’s rigid row runs 8.4 + (8.4 / 5 x 5) = 16.8% by 2030 at its 2020 to 2025 pace, 8.2 points short of 25%. Kraft Heinz’s runs 2 + (2 / 3 x 6) = 6.0%, 14 points short of 20%. Danone’s base case of 31.2% is arithmetic only: its plastic use fell 10.1% over the same six years, so the virgin cut has come with recycled content and volume changes that may not repeat. For suppliers, the gap between base and high is the volume of rigid virgin resin that each customer has said it will replace with recycled content, new materials or reuse.

The second and third sets price what the regulatory floor costs on a fixed tonnage. Exhibit 12 takes 1,000 tonnes of plastic packaging placed on the UK market and applies PackUK’s Year 2 illustrative disposal fees, published on 16 December 2025 and updated on 19 December 2025, and the Plastic Packaging Tax at GBP 228.82 per tonne from 1 April 2026 (Finance Act 2021, section 45, as substituted by the Finance Act 2026; PR-GB-001).

SPI calculation: the base case is 1,000 x GBP 455 + 1,000 x GBP 228.82 = GBP 683,820. The tax is a cliff: a component at 29% recycled plastic pays on its full weight, one at 30% pays nothing. Nestlé reports 20.6% recycled content in plastic globally and Mondelēz 3.7%, but the tax is assessed component by component, so group averages say nothing about any one UK pack. The pledge gap piece covers how the 30% line is counted.

Exhibit 13 does the same for Spain, where the tax base is only the non-recycled plastic in non-reusable packaging, at EUR 0.45 per kilogram (Agencia Tributaria, consulted 20 October 2026). Every kilogram of certified recycled plastic lowers the bill.